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Published on September 24, 2007

Let's just hope he meant it. After the dust finally cleared over the military reshuffle, assistant Army chief General Saprang Kalayanamitr, who had been widely tipped to succeed junta leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin as Army chief, reacted to the rise of comrade General Anupong Paochinda to the post with the shortest possible comment: "It's over now." Another high-ranking friend of Saprang's also claimed the volatile junta member has managed to come to terms with the disappointment. Again, we hope this is true.

A new chapter was added this week to the tale of the three generals - Sonthi, Saprang and Anupong - with the announcement of military promotions and transfers. It came as the country was reassessing the pros and cons of last year's coup, which naturally brought the issue of who would take what position in the Army to the fore. It's too early to conclude that there will be a smooth shift in the chain of command, and Saprang's "It's over now" could mean anything.

At this politically sensitive time, Saprang's reaction to this personal and professional setback is as important as how Anupong will run the Army. The latter is known among junta members to be more open-minded and likely to compromise. He has demonstrated his understanding of the importance of freedom of speech and privately has always expressed reservations about the prospect of General Sonthi entering politics. It's no wonder that Anupong's promotion has been greeted with considerable public approval.

All eyes have been on Saprang, though. His aggressive nature and strong hopes of succeeding Sonthi as Army chief contributed to high tensions and rumours prior to the announcement of the reshuffle. Many observers have, for good reasons, linked the question of whether Thailand will have a smooth transition back to democracy or face prolonged uncertainties with how Saprang will handle this kind of upset. While he was quoted as vowing to do his best in his new position as deputy permanent secretary for defence until he reaches the mandatory age of retirement, politically weary Thais are still keeping their fingers crossed.

Saprang's boldness helped the junta maintain post-coup control in the face of lingering challenges from remnants of the old regime. But he is also a major liability as far as the junta's image is concerned. There have been whispers about scandals, and his active involvement with the management operations of key state enterprises does not help. Over the past year, whenever there were rumours about a new coup, Saprang was always the usual suspect since he had made little secret of his ambition. Whereas Saprang's promotion would have strengthened the junta's hand, Anupong's rise helps improve the pre-election political atmosphere. Optimists see Anupong's appointment as a signal that the coup-makers' intend to fade away. There is pessimism, surely, but even the most sceptical critics of the junta would rather see Anupong at the Army's helm than Saprang.

However, while Sonthi has overcome one major test, a bigger one awaits and the promotion of Anupong, which some observers see as an attempt to deter a politicised armed-forces in the post-coup period, has shed little light on one key matter. What will Sonthi do with himself before and after the election? He has kept his cards close to his chest, the same way he handled the Saprang-Anupong speculation. On Friday, Sonthi said it was up to Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont to decide whether he would appoint Sonthi as a deputy prime minister now that he's retiring from the military. Earlier this week, speaking about his "political future", Sonthi remained as elusive as ever, saying that if everything goes well for Thailand politically, there would be no need for him to get involved any more. He was keeping his options open as usual.

Thailand has marked the first anniversary of the September 19 coup with a virtual thumbs-down for the interim leadership. Of course, the jury is still out, as the promised election is on track and legal proceedings against the ousted leader have gained significant ground. But for the coup-makers to measure whether they have succeeded or failed, perhaps they don't need to look as far as opinion polls or newspaper articles. After one year of promised reforms, if the generals still have to tie Thailand's political future to their own, that could be the best evidence of whether they have flopped or succeeded.