• 
• 

Published on September 21, 2007

He will take over on October 1. General Saprang Kalayanamitr, the chief of the Third Army, in charge of Northern Thailand, must be bitterly disappointed. He is slated to become deputy permanent secretary at the Defence Ministry. This will give Anupong full power to run the Army without any rivals over the next three years before retirement. Anupong has promised that he will take the military back to its barracks in order to allow Thai democracy to learn how to walk again. He will be the key man in ensuring stability in the post-coup period. He has ruled out the possibility of another coup.

The financial markets seem to welcome his appointment. Nithi Wanikpun of CitiGroup wrote in a September 20 report: "The appointment of Gen Anupong is positive for the stock market, in our view, given his firm commitment to the 'professional military' concept." Nithi added: "The appointment of Gen Anupong should help reduce uncertainties in the country. It also could imply that the military, via the Council for National Security, which took power from the previous government, is now ready to lessen its strong presence in Thailand's politics."

Shortly after the military coup last year, there was a general understanding that Saprang would be rewarded with the Army's chief post, because General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Army chief, would retire by the end of September 2007. Saprang, 59, would serve as Army chief for one year. Then it would be the turn of Anupong, the First Army chief, who would be in the post for two years.

This post-coup period is also crucial because the three generals have to make sure that the old power clique is not allowed to regain political power, otherwise they would be the first to suffer from retribution.

When Anupong and Saprang were together, the former would always demonstrate a polite manner. "Let phi Saprang have [the appointment] first," Anupong said.

Saprang has proclaimed himself a hero of this "Yellow Revolution". He was the most vocal military man of all in expressing his strong opinion to then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. He declared that he was ready to die in his fight to defend the monarchy. One of the main reasons for the coup, as cited by the generals, was that Thaksin did not respect the monarchy. Saprang has been thinking all along that he should be rewarded for his role in the coup.

But Sonthi has cut him short. On the first anniversary of the September 19 coup on Wednesday, Sonthi said there was no hero in this coup. It was he who plotted the coup, along with two of his top aides. He did not reveal their names. He made it sound as if it was a lonely, risky and thankless job, which he was obliged to do anyway. The coup, he said, was necessary to prevent the country from suffering even more; the political crisis at the height of the street demonstrations against Thaksin could not be allowed to drag on indefinitely.

Anupong also played a critical role in overthrowing Thaksin. He was a classmate of Thaksin at the Armed Forces Academy Preparatory School. But Thaksin favoured General Pornchai Kranlert, the leader of this Class 10. Members of Class 10, like the "Republican Guard", had already spread out to gain control over key military positions.

Thaksin appointed Sonthi as Army chief in 2005 because at that time Sonthi had no rival, even though he was not a prominent soldier. Thailand had no powerful or charismatic soldiers since Suchinda Khraprayoon. Pornchai was too junior to take up the top post. Thaksin thought that Sonthi would serve only as a stopgap. After Sonthi's retirement in 2007 and if politics were to proceed with its normal course, Pornchai would have taken over as chief. Then Thaksin would have established his complete control over the security forces, as he had already gained full command of the police. Yet by appointing as Sonthi as Army chief, Thaksin had written his own death warrant. Sonthi, Saprang and Anupong would emerge as the Three Musketeers, to fight valiantly against the "Republican Guard". The Republican Guard, remember, wore red scarves.

One military observer told me that Anupong was upset over Thaksin's decision to appoint Pornchai instead of him. So Anupong decided to break ranks and side with the Sonthi camp. He was the only prominent member of Class 10 to wear the yellow scarf.

"Will he be able to restore peace and order to the three southern provinces of Thailand? I doubt it very much," said a military observer. "So far, given his position and power, he has not paid enough attention to the unrest in the South. And he does not seem to have a strategy yet. He prefers to play it safe. His appointment might not mean anything much, since unity in the military has already broken into pieces."

Thanong Khanthong