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Published on September 20, 2007

1. It will be a coalition government.

2. It will last somewhere between 12 and 18 months.

3. Whoever becomes prime minister will face an insurmountable task and unprecedented challenges.

And if you want to stick your neck out a bit more, you will predict that the coalition government that will last about one year to 18 months won't be all that united.

Don't, however tempted, be lured into predicting who looks like the most likely candidate to be the next premier. It isn't even fully foolproof to go for the usually safe forecast that the leader of the party that gains the highest number of seats should lead the next coalition government.

Why? Because no party is going to get an absolute majority, and that means that nobody will really be able to call the shots. Anything could happen in the horse-trading that will begin even before the first ballot is cast.

Former deputy premier and finance minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakul may not be known for his precise political analysis but he did provide an accurate political judgement the other day when he declared that he would only offer economic predictions for next year "because as far as I know, the new government will only last one to one-and-a-half years".

Defence minister General Boonrod Somthat is known to be close to Army commander-in-chief and CNS chairman General Sonthi, and his words are usually taken as a reflection of his boss's.

The public therefore took note when the defence minister said he believed the new government would have a tenure of about one to two years. "A coalition government won't have the desirable cohesiveness. Besides, stability still won't be achieved just yet. Democracy isn't strong enough and eventually we will be back to the old process. But political problems must be resolved through political means. But I am sure there won't be another coup," he said.

Thirayuth Boonmi, the country's "social critic in residence", went one step further. He said the new government will comprise at least three parties, with the most likely line-up being the Democrat Party and its former opposition allies Chat Thai and Mahachon.

He even stuck his head out by predicting that the pro-Thaksin People Power Party could win the highest number of seats in the House. "But then, because of its unpopular image, the party won't be able to be the core in forming the next government."

That's a pretty high-risk thing to say about such a volatile situation. But then, Thirayuth knows that if you want to draw attention, you have to deliberately stray from the safe zone and risk stumbling onto a landmine. 

But his venture into dangerous terrain was brief. And even if he attempted to be more specific than many other pundits, this usually intrepid academic wasn't ready to predict the new premier.

All he managed to offer in terms of a prescription for the new chief executive is that he (not a she?) will have to have four minimum qualifications:

1. He must be in possession of an economic vision.

2. He must work fast.

3. He must be able to win over the hearts of both the grass-roots citizens and the business circle.

4. He must be competent and flexible enough to maintain the government's political stability - in which case, the longevity of the coalition government may straddle half a term (two years) or longer.

But what if the election can't produce a leader with those qualifications?

In that case, Thirayuth came up with a rather gloomy forecast: Thailand will revert to its old ways within one or two years, which means a return to fierce, large-scale battles over political interests among various groups. This will lead to massive corruption "because every party realises that the following election will be a pitched battle against the old regime, which is equipped with overwhelming financial backing."

Under the current gloomy atmosphere, assuming the role of the prophet of doom is easy. The real challenge for the country's top political buffs is to offer some really stunning forecasts: the army will really return to its barracks; General Sonthi will retire to spend time with his grandchildren; Thaksin will be extradited to be tried in a Thai court; Samak Sundaravej becomes the new prime minister; and the EU's observers will declare after the election that this is the freest and fairest poll ever!

Just one of these predictions coming true would represent a real turnaround for the country's political reform indeed.

Suthichai Yoon

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