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Published on August 29, 2007

With Thaksin Shinawatra backstage and new stars having emerged like Sonthi Boonyaratglin and Saprang Kalayanamitr, what will happen in Thailand depends very much on the mood of whoever is writing the script. Here are the scenarios:

PG 13: Somehow, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and Chat Thai leader Banharn manage to maintain their alliance after winning a combined 160 parliamentary seats. Supported also by Snoh (who is expected to get up to 10 MPs under his wing), Suwat Liptapanlop (expected to snag up to 30 MPs) and Somsak Thepsuthin (50 MPs), Abhisit becomes Thailand's new prime minister.

In between, Saprang becomes the new Army chief and Sonthi comes to his senses and decides to stay away from politics. Court cases against Thaksin and Co proceed in a normal manner with no interference from the military.

Too good to be true? Well, having a bit of faith won't hurt.

Action Thriller: Just as Samak has pronounced himself "Thaksin's nominee", Sonthi decides to take over a "nominee" party in a direct declaration of war against the "old power". The Democrats are edged out from centre stage and face the major dilemma of whether they should join hands with a military-backed party and thus ruin their long-term future.

(What would that "military nominee" party to counter the probable rise of the People Power Party be? The "Rak Chat" group, which was said to harbour the sole objective of propelling Sonthi into politics, has gone quiet lately. Coincidentally, rumours have resurfaced on Somsak's faction acting as the magnetic core bringing in splinter groups to form a force big enough to match the People Power Party. The question is, would Sonthi dare take a suicidal plunge by agreeing to lead this convergence?)

In this heart-stopping scenario, Chavalit, Banharn and the established parties would sit on the fence, ready to jump onto whichever bandwagon is the winning one. Meanwhile, military tension would rise after Sonthi snubs hot-headed Saprang and nominates one of his own for the Army top post.

Can't predict the ending. Just hold on to your seat.

Horror: Take the action thriller scenario and add the transformation of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), led by media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, into a political party and a legal clampdown on the People Power Party, which, however, still manages to win the general election. Thaksin returns home to fight corruption charges. The September 19 coup-makers break up after an acrimonious military reshuffle.

Horror II: Sonthi becomes prime minister, backed by a lot of former key members of the Thai Rak Thai. He restores peace with former CNS members, but Chamlong Srimuang joins hands with Samak to launch a new, formidable pro-democracy movement. Street protests begin.

Comedy: Somehow, Samak scrapes through everything - the CNS, the Democrats, the PAD, Snoh, Suwat, Chavalit, Somsak, Banharn and the former Bangkok governor's own claims that he is "Thaksin's nominee" - to become the country's new prime minister. Thai judges free Thaksin and his wife from all corruption charges and they return home to a hero's welcome.

Parliament is dissolved to allow Thaksin to re-enter politics. Soon afterwards, serious moral and legal questions are raised about the company he has set up to buy Manchester City. PAD resumes besieging Government House, dealing another "big blow" to our fledging democracy. The military watches helplessly, weighing the options of letting this go or tearing up yet another constitution, which it virtually sponsored.

Comedy II: A coalition government with Samak, Banharn and Chavalit sitting together. It is called a "reconciliation" administration, because otherwise Chavalit wouldn't join. Snoh, who had backed Banharn, Chavalit and Samak's virtual master as prime minister, can't help it and decides to join this government after four months. The administration's "perfect blend" makes the armed forces politically shy and they stay away from the limelight.

Mystery: This one is also far-fetched but stranger things have happened in Thai politics over the past three years. Here it goes: the Democrats, the People Power Party and a pro-Sonthi alliance win an almost equal numbers of seats, say 120 each. The remaining parties including Chat Thai also command around 120 MPs altogether. It sounds like a total dead-end, because each group would stop at nothing to get the premiership. It would be quite nasty and anything could happen - like Sonthi's camp and the People Power Party ending up in an opposition bloc together.

Tulsathit Taptim