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A day after the referendum on the new constitution, members of the Thai Rak Thai group realised their moment of apparent triumph in 24 northern and northeastern provinces was over.

Initially, the results of the "no" vote in the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) strongholds proved that loyalty to ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra is still solid - although the TRT was disbanded as a political party by the Constitution Tribunal.

In the February 2005 poll, the 24 provinces included 146 of the 400 constituencies nationwide. The seven northern "no-vote" provinces were Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lampang, Lamphun, Nan, Phayao and Phrae. The TRT won in all of their 35 constituencies.

The 17 northeastern provinces including Khon Kaen, Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani are divided into 111 constituencies. TRT swept 102 of them in the 2005 poll. This does not include other former TRT MPs in the "yes" provinces, although some remain confident they will win the election in their controlled constituencies.

Considering these figures, the TRT leaders believed that under their new banner of the People Power Party, they could win more than 150 of the 400 constituent seats, and so regain some bargaining power in post-junta politics.

However, the sudden merger of Matchima Group and Ruam Jai Thai on Monday to form a new party to run in the election has sent a strong sign that the TRT group will no longer walk on a red carpet in their bid to regain power.

Although each of them had a plan to register their own party, Sunday's referendum worried leaders of Matchima and Ruam Jai Thai parties that they would be unable to challenge the TRT group in the election if they ran separately.

Both together their coalition has more than 100 former MPs, most of whom have the chance to win seats in the next poll.

Key leaders of Matchima and Ruam Jai Thai - Somsak Thepsuthin and Pradit Pataraprasit respectively - said more groups could join them in the new party. The "Bangkok 50" led by former TRT minister Suranand Vejjajiva is one of them.

What's more, the surprising merger took place while the coup leaders were still reeling from the referendum results in the 24 provinces, 15 of which were under martial law.

Junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has already admitted that the September 19 coup was nothing more than to destroy Thaksin's rule and his legacy. But the results on Sunday showed the coup leaders that Thaksin's influence is still around - 11 months later.

Under the circumstances, the Matchima-Ruam Jai Thai coalition is linked by the belief that the coup leaders will do everything to ensure Thaksin and the TRT group have no chance of returning to power. The coup leaders also realise that the Democrat Party cannot resist the TRT group's strength alone.

The new group under Somsak and Pradit will allegedly become a military-sponsored party - similar to the Samakheedham Party in the 1991 junta under General Sunthorn Khongsomphong and General Suchinda Kraprayoon - and provide a channel for the transition of military power.

While Sonthi has kept the public guessing about his plan to run for election after retiring as Army chief at the end of September, Pradit on Tuesday did not rule out the possibility that Sonthi could become party leader.

Although groups of former TRT ministers, including Suwat Liptapanlop and old guard Snoh Thienthong denied they had a plan to join Matchima and Ruam Jai Thai, the history of post-junta politics shows that they will end up catching the last train on time.

Sonthi has sent a clear message: Anything to do with Thaksin must be aborted.

By Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation