Old warhorses emerge as charter winners

Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa has emerged as a key power broker.

The outcome of Sunday's referendum shows a much deeper story than just the aspirations for democratic rule as enshrined in the 2007 Constitution.

Some 25.9 million people, accounting for 57.6 per cent of 45.6 million eligible voters, finally had their say about a road map of the political system.

With some 14 million voters casting "yes" ballots for the charter, Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa and Saman Chan Group leader Suwat Liptapanlop have emerged as powerful brokers for the next coalition government.

And with some 10 million voters casting "no" ballots, former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh has once again become a formidable force in the political landscape.

Banharn, Suwat and Chavalit are all slated to have a decisive say in the post-coup politics.

The country's first-ever referendum turned out to be a surprise for the junta, the anti-coup campaigners and supporters of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Political rivals might have tried to come up with plans to influence the vote, but they learned that the people are no fools.

The junta wanted to achieve a majority vote of around 65 per cent, in order to exonerate themselves from the September 19 coup. It managed to garner 57.6 per cent of the votes - a sufficient margin to bring about general elections, but not enough to catapult the political career of junta chief, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin.

The anti-coup campaigners were modestly anticipating about a million "no" votes, but instead got 10 times what they'd hoped for.

The minority voice of 42 per cent indicated a strong disapproval of military intervention, but didn't show enough wrath to derail the elections.

For Thaksin supporters, the referendum was a rude awakening. With 7.1 million votes, the upper North and the Northeast rejected the charter, showing a sharp drop in Thaksin popular vote of 14 million.

Some 4.8 million constituents from 17 Northeastern provinces and some 2.3 million from seven Northern provinces showed they were still loyal to Thaksin.

The overwhelming "yes" votes in the South, a stronghold of the Democrats, was a given. Some 88 per cent of voters supported the charter.

However, the most notable outcome was in the Central region - the backyard of the Chat Thai Party. The approval votes totalled 5.4 million, far outpacing those who rejected the new charter, 2.7 million.

This means Banharn has managed, once again, to consolidate his power base that saw much erosion in Thaksin's heyday.

Since the referendum coincided with his birthday, it's understandable why he made such an upbeat speech about his campaign plans.

Banharn has never been coy about his political ambitions, including his hopes for a second chance at the premiership. However, he is still backing Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to lead the next coalition.

And, despite the anti-coup sentiment in the Northeast, Suwat successfully convinced his Nakhon Ratchasima constituents to say yes to the charter.

With his domination assured over the electoral system in the second largest province after Bangkok, Suwat now has enough clout on swing votes to decide on either the coalition or the opposition.

Some 30 to 40 former Thai Rak Thai MPs, who used to work under Chavalit's New Aspiration Party banner, were involved in the mobilisation of "no" votes in the Northeast.

And with these "no" votes, Chavalit is slated to come out of retirement on Friday.

He will join a friendly race with political veteran Samak Sundaravej for the leadership of the People Power Party.

However, Thaksin and his close aides reportedly want Samak to lead the disbanded party, but a faction of former MPs prefer the return of their old boss Chavalit.

Chavalit and Samak have had cordial relations for decades and are expected to work as a team.

With Thaksin controlling the purse strings, Samak may take the party's helm with Chavalit as chief adviser.

Or the two will reverse roles because Chavalit is more popular among in the Northeast.

The referendum vote is clear about bringing back popular democracy, though the shape and form of the next coalition remains uncertain.

The charter may have turned a new chapter of politics, but events leading to the elections will depend on old power brokers like Banharn, Suwat and Chavalit.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation