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Published on August 21, 2007

The small win put junta chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin on the defensive. On hearing the initial results on Sunday he said he didn't care about the numbers. But he then admitted yesterday he had expected a majority vote of 60 to 65 per cent (instead of a mere 56 per cent).

Some analysts speculated that the outcome might cause the junta to consider a retreat to the barracks as the narrow win shines a dim light on their political future.

Others, however, predicted the opposite. To them, the junta will do everything it can to tighten its grip on power and further crush the remnants of the Thai Rak Thai as results in the Northeast and the North showed a red carpet of provinces where the "no" vote was higher than the "yes".

"I think the assumption that the junta will simply return to the barracks is just a melo-dramatic plot," said Dr Suthachai Yimprasert, a leading historian on modern Thai politics at Chulalongkorn University. "Gen Sonthi's ambiguous answer to the question if he plans to enter politics made it clear to me that the man has political ambition.

"That's why I don't think Sonthi would allow Gen Saprang [Kalayanamitr] to succeed him as Army chief because Saprang too is politically ambitious. Sonthi needs somebody who supports him rather than compete with him, if he wants to become prime minister," Suthachai said.

Gen Sonthi believed those who rejected the constitution did not understand its provisions "because 70 per cent of Thais haven't even read the draft". He said he would instruct soldiers to reason with the public to help them understand.

While agreeing that

many people might not have read the draft, many advocates to the anti-charter campaign argued it would not be necessary to read it because people might have rejected the charter anyway on the grounds that they didn't approve the coup. Or because they didn't accept the country's top law being drafted under military control.

"Thaksin's supporters are still mad that he was thrown out by an undemocratic means," said Uchane Chiangsan of the September 19 Anti-Coup Network. "They will continue to support the remaining Thai Rak Thai candidates in the next election."

But the military cannot afford to have Thai Rak Thai return to power. That would put the end to probes into Thaksin's assets and invite possible retaliation against the coup makers.

"We think this will put the military as a part of Thai politics for quite sometime. Also, they have fixed the constitution in such a way to their advantage," asserted Charnvit Kasetsiri, a former rector of Thammasat University.