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SET index set to soar as vote restores confidence

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index is set to surge today after preliminary results of the country's first referendum showed the majority of the voters had accepted the draft constitution.

Published on August 20, 2007



Pramon Sutheewong, chairman of Thai Chamber of Commerce and Board of Trade of Thailand, said if the majority agreed with the draft charter, it should lead to a general election soon.

"If the majority has voted yes, then all should work towards quickly organising the next general election, as that reflects what the public at large wants. The result also corresponds to what the private sector and foreign investors are looking for - stability. With democracy restored, consumption and investment would return.

"If everything is directed towards [restoring] democracy, then consumption and investment will come back," he said. But he would have to see the official results. "If the majority of the eligible voters, say 60 to 70 per cent of them, accept the charter, then consumer confidence will certainly come back. I think the next elected government will be a coalition, but of how many parties, we will have to see."

Maris Tarab, chairman of the Association of Investment Management Companies, said the result should boost market sentiment today. He made his comment at 6pm when the preliminary vote counts showed 2.24 million people had accepted the draft charter, against 1.53 million opposed to it.

"The Thai market should rise for two reasons. First, of course, the referendum result shows that the political situation should become more stable as the general election is expected soon," Maris said.

"Secondly, the Thai market should get the benefit from the surge in the US markets on Friday."

The SET index closed at 758.42 last week, following a slight surge on Friday, but the overall sentiment last week was dampened by the turmoil in the US mortgage securities market.

Santi Vilassakdanont, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said if the draft charter is accepted, then it would restore confidence among investors. The development should also bring about a positive perception among governments in many countries, which may have found it hard to enter into any agreement with the interim government.

"When international news agencies broadcast the vote's result, foreigners will see that the country is getting closer to democracy and that's what most businessmen here are waiting for," he said.

Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, the Bank of Thailand vice chairman, said: "The result of the referendum is a good sign, as it means that most people agree. However, if most had voted 'no' then the opposition would have gained ground. And it would give the opposition a big boost. But now that most people have voted 'yes', things should become normal once again. A general election is now inevitable. And if there is an election, then consumer confidence will surely return."

Poj Aramwattananont, president of Thai Frozen Foods Association, said: "Once the constitution is approved by the people, the government should speed up efforts to hold the next general election. All foreign eyes are on Thailand now. It would be very damaging for the country if the government failed to hold the election by the end of this year. The least it can do is to set a date for the election - the sooner, the better - for the sake of consumer confidence.

"Since most people voted for the constitution, the opposition should show some sportsmanship and accept the fact that most people agree with the constitution and do want an election. The opposition should then retreat."

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