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Published on August 9, 2007

With 10 days to go before the charter referendum, a big concern for the government is not whether the constitution will be approved but how many voters turn out to cast ballots.

The lower the turnout the less dignity for the new charter. It does not help also if the referendum is called "unjustified". Those who do not cast votes might be considered as "No" voters because the ballot card has no option for those who want to abstain.

The Cabinet on Tuesday set a target of at least 23 million votes from about 45 million eligible voters. It showed the government's concern over the turnout. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont had already expressed concern and given all ministries the job of encouraging people to exercise their right to vote on August 19.

"It would be good if the turnout were higher than our target," Surayud said in the Cabinet meeting.

The Cabinet also divided voters into various groups.

It estimated that 5 million state officials and their families would accept the draft.

It also expected that a huge number of people from the south of Thailand, which has 6 million eligible voters, would vote "Yes" for the charter.

However, of most concern is a low turnout in the capital. Typically, Bangkok's turnout is always lower than other regions. Surveys have recently shown that more than 50 per cent of Bangkok voters have not yet decided whether to cast a vote.

The government has agreed to hold a campaign on August 13 to increase awareness and encourage Bangkok residents to exercise their right.

Votes in Bangkok are significant, as the city's residents are well informed. Their votes can punish or reward politicians.

It sounded reasonable when ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's close aide Surapong Suebwonglee said the referendum outcome should represent a majority vote of more than 50 per cent of the electorate, otherwise the result would be inconclusive.

"If fewer than 50 per cent of voters cast ballots, then we don't feel this is the charter for the entire population," he said.

The government has used many means to publicise the country's first ever referendum. Much has been spent on advertising in the media, and officials are ready to facilitate voters despite security concerns.

However, the Cabinet's declaration of August 20 as an official holiday - to encourage voters to cast ballots in their provinces - has been criticised. It could have a negative effect as, instead of going back home to vote, people might grab the opportunity to take a break over a long weekend.

Some ministers have even suggested a reward or plaque to the province getting the highest turnout.

Besides the government's hard sell, the junta sent a signal, which sounded threatening to voters, that if the draft were rejected the general election could not be held as scheduled by the end of the year.

It could have been the junta's intention to threaten voters, and it might work. People who are bored with the political uncertainty

may accept the draft because they think it will be the only way to end the political chaos.

Previous statistics may please the government. There has been at least a 50-per-cent turnout in every general and senatorial election since 1992. (See box.)

But one thing should be remembered: this is a referendum, not a general election, and it is the first for the country. There are also many factors which may cause voters to decline their right to vote.

Firstly, the charter itself is too complicated for ordinary people to understand. Some, especially villagers, think their lives have nothing to do with the constitution.

Second, many of the "No" group intend not to cast ballots. They reason that they do not want to be involved in any process related to last September's coup.

Third, many people are bored with politics.

Fourth, many want to abstain but that choice is not available to them.

Lastly, if this were a general election, politicians would have campaigned. In the past they paid voters to vote for them. This time, however, certain of them have reportedly paid Bt200 to voters not to exercise their rights.

If there are relatively few voters on August 19 yet the official turnout is shown to be high, anti-coup sentiment may grow. And it will be an uphill task from there.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation