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Published on July 9, 2007

To Asean leaders, it helps reinforce the stereotypical thinking that the US is not very serious about its relationship with Southeast Asia. A few hours' stopover in Singapore on September 5 on the way to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meeting in Sydney was cancelled at short notice. By implication, it shows how fragile Asean-US relations really are.

It would be a hard sale for Washington to claim that Asean is important to the world's greatest superpower. And it is hard to explain why the US is not making the effort to meet with Asean leaders to commemorate the 30th anniversary of their relations. Bush's postponement for now is put down to forthcoming domestic troubles that have to do with the ongoing war and the increase of US troops in Iraq and the case of withheld information in the Congress. Other issues include the worsening situation in Afghanistan, issues related to nuclear proliferation and the Middle East quagmire.

Both the US and Asean considered the proposed summit meeting in Singapore as a new beginning, aside from a commemoration of three decades of their relations, which have recently been overshadowed in comparison with Asean's growing links with China.

The Asean side hopes that the Asean-plus-one meeting with the US leader could be institutionalised as an annual event. Other key Asean dialogue partners such as China, Japan, Australia, India and Russia have institutionalised such summit meetings. 

In the past, several planned meetings and visits were either delayed or postponed because of developments on the home front. Former US president Bill Clinton twice missed the Apec meeting. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her predecessors, including Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright, have missed Asean ministerial meetings before.

To his credit, Bush has attended every Apec summit. It is understandable he is proceeding with the Sydney meeting due to the importance of the host, one of his strongest allies, even though the Iraqi situation will have serious implications on his legacy.

Although the US and Asean leaders have met on the sidelines of the Apec meetings several times, they were not exclusive in nature, as the one specifically scheduled for Singapore and involving all 10 members was intended to be. Since the first US-Asean meeting alongside the Apec meeting hosted by the US in Seattle in 1993, subsequent meetings have been heavily conditioned and politicised. After all, Burma, Laos and Cambodia are still not Apec members.

Under the Bush administration, extra efforts have been made to push US-Asean relations and cooperation forward. Last year's conclusion of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between the two sides was significant as it will facilitate a free-trade agreement with the US in the future. Earlier, their joint vision statements and plans of action under the Asean-US Enhanced Partnership context agreed in 2005 demonstrate the commitment for continued consultations with Asean

However, two important new developments, if realised, could herald a new era of Asean-US relations. One is the appointment of a US ambassador to the Jakarta-based Asean Secretariat following a recommendation by a non-binding Senate resolution last November. That would make the US the first country to recognise the new system of Jakarta-based representation, expected to be installed next year. Senator Richard Lugar has in the past two years pushed for such an appointment to highlight growing mutual Asean-US interests.

Second are the possibilities related to the US accession to the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). Washington has not made the final decision, but US-based  analysts have expressed strong support for the accession. All members of the UN Security Council have either signed or intend to sign the TAC. The UK's accession would make the US the only nuclear power that has not associated itself with a regional code of conduct. Initial hopes were high that the US would sign the TAC last year, following in Australia's footsteps. After all, US allies in the region have already done so. Asean is hoping the US will seize the opportunity to highlight their three decades of dialogue and cooperation by signing the TAC - knowing full well the chance for a future ratification in Congress is nil. That would have served the purposes of both sides.

That is not all. Washington has its bottom line too, in wanting Asean to support the Proliferation Security Initiatives, which only Singapore and the Philippines have signed. Asean nations are divided on this security measure to block the transfer of banned nuclear weapons technology for fear of compromising their sovereignty.

The postponed Asean-US summit could be rescheduled to November when the Asean leaders hold their summit in Singapore. Of course, it would take an extraordinary sacrifice by Bush to fly non-stop to the region for a two- or three-hour meeting with them.

The question is: Will he  do so?

  Kavi Chongkittavorn