The fight-back by ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who vowed to return to Thailand sooner rather than later after his clan's assets were frozen by the Assets Examination Committee (AEC), might just be a knee-jerk reaction.

A known die-hard, Thaksin must have felt he'd been kicked into a corner. There has been much debate over how he would react to his family being "bullied" by the junta.

Last month, his nine-year-old Thai Rak Thai Party was dissolved and all executive party members banned from politics for five years. Ten days later his and his family's assets were frozen.

The former PM declared via his lawyer that he would return promptly to clear his name.

That encouraged and cheered his supporters and gave an extra menace to the anti-junta demonstrations. It has been feared "his" protesters might also use it as a signal to carry matters through to the bitter end and to use violence, if necessary, to portray recent moves against him and his party as wildly unpopular.

But if violence does occur, as many fear, the country's reputation could suffer serious damage.

The big question is, does Thaksin really want to come back home right now? Does he have the courage to return?

There is no rosy road back from exile. He's hardly likely to be able to step off a plane, be warmly greeted by a throng of supporters, and drive triumphantly back to his Baan Chan Song La ("Shiny Moon" home) in Thon Buri without a hitch.

Although Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and junta chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin have given the green light for him to return, their "welcome to come back" comments seemed to carry a dark overtone - a bit like "if you dare".

The prime minister and Army chief both said they could not guarantee Thaksin's personal safety and that his life may be in danger.

Some of his supporters fear a plan to assassinate him.

Jakraphob Penkair, a key man in the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship, said the group agreed that Thaksin should not return at present because they had heard there was plot to kill Thaksin on his arrival in Thailand.

However, an assassination plan is considered unlikely, as the international shame might severe for the Kingdom. If he really was killed, people would assume the junta did it or that it was "officially" sanctioned. Such a move could create havoc for business confidence and the country's international image for an indefinite period.

But what Thaksin may be equally concerned about - if he returns - is having to testify in the many scandals being scrutinised by the AEC. Some cases, such as his wife Khunying Pojaman's controversial Ratchadaphisek land purchase, could see him jailed. While others could involve literally years of court battles.

For these reasons, the best option for Thaksin may to stay outside the country and engage in psychological warfare, by using his supporters, anti-coup protesters and the international media as tools to create turmoil inside the country.

Jakraphob said his group would phone Thaksin and have him speak to the crowd at Sanam Luang, live via teleconference from London. But unless the tide turns dramatically, that may be the closest they will get to seeing the deposed leader in the flesh.

Political Desk

The Nation