''Possibly true" verdicts against the two main political parties - Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and the Democrats - were "intentionally" leaked to the press on Monday, ahead of the May 30 judgement day.

Thai Rak Thai legal expert Vichit Plangsrisakul was quoted in the first report as saying he had heard that the nine-member Constitution Tribunal would eventually dissolve both parties - by a 6-3 vote in the TRT case, and 5-4 in the case of the Democrats.

However, he dismissed the report yesterday as wrong, saying he had not spoken to any reporters as quoted.

He believes the Council for National Security (CNS) was behind the leak in order to check the public reaction if dissolving both parties would be the best solution for the post-CNS political field.

As the leak succeeded in making news headlines across the mainstream media, the outcome has had a significant impact.

Vichit apparently intends to send a "complaint" to Thai Rak Thai supporters, who still have faith in deposed premier Thaksin Shinawtra, that the party would finally be disbanded regardless of the legal process.

Because CNS chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and some ministers have continually said that the public will soon see the final chapter of the Thai Rak Thai, the leak is aimed at vindicating the party's allegation that the verdict was reached as a result of the junta's plan, not the justice system.

Moreover, it rubs in the point that the party's dissolution was the part of a conspiracy to overthrow Thaksin, following the mass movements of his opponents and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

The assumption is based on a rule added to the dissolution cases shortly after the coup that, if a party is dissolved, its executives will be banned from assuming political office for five years. Thaksin and many TRT heavyweights are included in that new condition.

Hence, the hearings involving a number of witnesses and documents will only be a "rite" to build legitimacy for the junta to "execute" the Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin.

If Vichit did speak to the press on Monday, he has thrown a bombshell on the junta and the tribunal.

His message is that "both parties" will be dissolved.

But a verdict which disbanded only the Thai Rak Thai would convey to its supporters and the public that the judges had been swayed to change their mind at the last minute in favour of its opponents.

Furthermore, a ruling against the Thai Rak Thai would also only vindicate its allegation that the Democrat Party is an ally of the junta, and the PAD, another of Thaksin's bitter enemies.

The Thai Rak Thai accuses the Democrats of intending to boycott the national poll of April 2, 2006 in a bid to help their allies topple the elected TRT government.

The leak might aim to fuel the anti-CNS rallies led by the People's TV, which has continually gained momentum. Although PTV's key members - including former Thai Rak Thai MPs Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Jakrapob Penkair - are attempting to distance themselves from the party, the movement somehow turns into pro-Thaksin rallies, with more supporters taking part every week.

If, however, Vichit did not leak news of the alleged verdicts, he might be right about his assumption that the CNS did so with a reason in mind.

The junta might have wanted to "test the water" about what could happen in the aftermath of the Constitution Tribunal's verdicts on May 30 if the two main parties are disbanded, and what could be the best decision to conclude the historic cases?

It is apparent that CNS leaders are searching for a "safe landing" after seizing power from elected politicians and taking over the national administration. A typical stepping down would not be different from previous military juntas, which placed a rearguard to reduce the chances of revenge when an elected government replaced their rule.

History shows that extending military rule will finally lead to disaster and bloodshed. However, the CNS leaders find it risky to compromise with political heavyweights by joining the same party to win the next poll and form a coalition government.

Those politicians expected to win a number of House seats are former allies of Thaksin. They could switch sides if the balance of power shifts in favour of the former premier.

The CNS goal of dissolving the Thai Rak Thai will not be easy to achieve. The popularity of the junta and the Surayud government has fallen sharply. The public have begun questioning the junta's sincerity about returning power to the people.

General Sonthi is hesitant to promise that he will not become the prime minister in any circumstances.

In the meantime, the CNS-sponsored Constitution Drafting Committee is accused of paving the way for extended military rule after its members agreed to leave room for an appointed prime minister. Sonthi is said to be the favourite candidate for the seat.

Moreover, the call for Thaksin's return is getting louder as Surayud has failed to run the administration effectively, causing the economy to slump and the violence in the deep South to increase.

The junta is obviously in a dilemma. To get rid of Thaksin and his cronies permanently would be the best solution for the future of its leaders.

As unrest is expected if only the Thai Rak Thai is dissolved, they might have to sacrifice the Democrats as well, although they do not want to.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation