Thailand's proposed new constitution has zero chance of passing a national referendum in September, many political pundits believe.

Besides a campaign against a new charter by many groups, including the former ruling clique and groups opposed to the coup that ousted it, the draft constitution itself contains many contentious points that raise the possibility of it being rejected.

First, while the draft of the new charter states that senators will be appointed instead of directly elected as earlier, the Senate will still have as much power as under the previous 1997 Constitution.

An appointed Senate is being objected to by former senators and politicians who had planned to run for the Upper House.

Another controversial issue is the creation of a special committee to resolve political deadlock leading to a national crisis. The committee will comprise 11 members, including the prime minister, heads of various courts, the opposition leader and chairmen of the so-called independent organisations. Critics say the charter does not define what constitutes a "crisis" or the extent of the committee's powers.

The third factor that could derail the draft charter is the demand by Buddhist groups for the inclusion of a clause recognising Buddhism as the national religion. This issue has the potential to ignite further social conflict.

Both the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government recently indicated they would have no objection to inserting the clause. They seem to realise that the pressure on this particular issue could be too strong for them to ignore.

However, even if the Buddhist groups are granted their wish, there is no guarantee there will not be further demonstrations to press other issues. The CNS is unlikely to concede all protesters' demands.

It appears the road for the 2007 constitution to come into force is not going to be as smooth as silk.

If the draft charter were rejected in the referendum, the CNS could take it as a slap in the face. It could destroy the junta's credibility to choose and adapt one of the previous 17 constitutions for the country, while in the meantime there might also be a build-up of public pressure against the junta and its draft charter. Ultimately, the country could sink into chaos and out of control.

Instead, the junta should look for a way to avoid such a scenario. What would be the best solution for the CNS? Specifically, what would be the best time to propose its own charter so that it faced as little opposition as possible?

The current interim constitution describes three scenarios under which the CNS can choose any of the country's 17 previous constitutions and adjust it within 30 days before submitting it for royal endorsement. Those are if the draft charter is not completed within 180 days; if the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) rejects the draft drawn up by the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC); and if a public referendum goes against the draft.

Since there are already many protests against the draft charter, this is a good opportunity for the CNS to propose its own version instead of waiting to see whether the CDC's version is rejected in the referendum.

It is believed the CNS is already working on its alternative charter, with rumours that top legal experts known to be junta advisers are busy preparing it.

The CDA rejecting the CDC's draft before it is turned down in the referendum might be the best solution. It could avoid political conflict and turmoil and would not waste the approximately Bt3-billion cost of holding a national referendum.

The one condition is that the CNS's draft must be a "good one" that enables a general election to be held as soon as possible rather than one aimed at perpetuating the junta's power.

A return to democracy is the only way for the junta to step down with dignity.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation