Lightning strikes during a heavy downpour in Bangkok yesterday. Scientists from the UN’s top body on climate change predict in an April report that greenhouse gases will change rainfall patterns, intensify tropical storms and amplify the risk of drought a

Some 2,000 top international scientists and officials from 180 countries will convene in Bangkok next week to finalise and launch their most recent report, "Mitigation of Climate Change".

They will lay out how the world can avert the worst impacts of rising global temperatures on life on earth - with technology, and more importantly, political will.

This will be the third and final volume of the scientists' latest assessment on climate change since the formation in 1988 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN panel to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding human-induced climate change.

The two previous reports rang alarm bells worldwide.

"Physical Science Basis" confirming a significantly warmer earth, was released in February in Paris, and "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" published earlier this month in Brussels, presented how life in almost every corner of the globe will be affected.

Reiterating that global warming is already upon us due to the increasing levels of carbons humans are putting into the atmosphere, the third report to be discussed in Bangkok from Monday to Thursday is slated to provide an up-to-date assessment on potential policies and technologies to reverse this trend.

The final report will be launched with a press conference at the United Nations building on Rajadamnoen Avenue on Friday.

Scientists estimate that greenhouse gases, which contribute to the world's rising temperatures - such as methane, nitrous oxide and, chiefly, carbon dioxide - have jumped by 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.

The two previous IPCC reports predicted a gloomy future in which unabated greenhouse emissions could drive global temperatures up by as much as six degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Even a 2oC rise could subject up to two billion people to water shortages by 2050 and threaten extinction for 20 to 30 percent of the world's species, the IPCC said.

The new draft report says emissions can be cut below current levels if the world shifts away from carbon-heavy fuels like coal, embraces energy efficiency and significantly reduces deforestation.

However, the UN initiative won't be without controversy. Chula-longkorn University's Anond Snidvongs, head of the Southeast Asia START Regional Centre, and part of the review team for the draft report from Thailand, said international scientists and government reps were expected to engage in hot debates on the political aspects of climate change.

For example, Southeast Asia, he noted, did not appear as a region in the draft report. Southeast Asian countries were regrouped in either "South" or "East Asia".

Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam were listed as East Asian nations while Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore were grouped with India and other South Asian countries.

The grouping is important because population and GDP determine the emission quota for greenhouse gases, Anond said. Countries with higher GDP are expected to comply with tighter regulations.

Environmentalists also raised concerns about the draft report. Measures listed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector include nuclear power, hydropower and coal power plants with carbon capture and storage facilities. The panel also

recommended genetically modified crops as sources of alternative fuel production.

Thai activists who have closely followed the IPCC climate change panels expressed fears that the Thai government might use the UN recommendations to promote and develop controversial energy technologies.

Wanun Permphibun, co-ordinator of Climate Action Network (CAN) Thailand, said the fact that the IPCC only focused on cutting carbon dioxide emissions made it neglect other social aspects and environmental impacts of alternate technologies.

"True, nuclear and hydro power do not generate CO2. But both energies have other points of concern, as we all know," she said.

CAN is a worldwide network of non-government organisations working to promote government, private sector and individual action to limit human-induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels.

But Wanun said she appreciated the IPCC, as it was the only global body to seriously assess climate change with a scientific basis, and had tried to find out what could be done to alleviate the impact of this global phenomenon and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Another activist, Tara Buakhamsri, climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Southeast Asia, urged the Thai government to select the best possible mitigation option for the country's socio-economic conditions.

For example, the government should gear its energy sector towards renewable sources readily available in the country such as bio-mass, solar and wind power instead of expensive, technologically sophisticated carbon capture and coal fired plants.

"Some measures are good for most developed countries but not developing countries. The Thai government should consider recommendations of the IPCC in the context of our environment," Tara said.

Prasertsook Chamornmarn, of the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP), did not disclose the content of the draft, saying it was secret as had not been finalised yet.

She said Thailand already had "standpoints" to negotiate at the forum, but refused to give details. The standpoints came from a collection of comments submitted to the ONEP by all commentators. Seven commentators would attend the meeting as representatives from Thailand, she said.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

Pennapa Hongthong