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Fri, April 27, 2007 : Last updated 16:25 pm (Thai local time)



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Home > Opinion > Road to December strewn with potential time-bombs





STOPPAGE TIME
Road to December strewn with potential time-bombs

December, the month when the powers-that-be have vaguely promised the election will take place, seems to crawl toward us at the speed of a snail wrecked by a Valium overdose.

Between now and then stand a myriad of potential time-bombs, namely the judgement day for two major political parties, the first anniversary of the September 19 coup, the constitution draft, Sondhi Limthongkul, YouTube, and others.

Can we get there? The good news is that "moderate" thinking - that we should try to navigate said minefields and scrape through with a nothing-is-perfect mentality - is gradually winning more advocates. Among them is Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, who wrote over the weekend that a general election in December should now be at the top of the national agenda. Caught in a huge storm, we have to unload idealism, hatred, antagonism and vengeance - or we will sink together.

In other words, we don't need a dream constitution right now. Nor do we need to eradicate the "Thaksin system" before election day. And despite what his critics and estranged allies in the Council for National Security have been saying or leaking to the media, we still can make do with Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. At least the interim prime minister is the only one who has given Thailand an unequivocal pledge that democracy will be returned by the end of the year. He is the only one who looks like he can't wait to leave the field, which is precisely why we have to keep him on our side.

We need the election bad. The vacuum has sucked out most of the oxygen, and perhaps our country has come to the point where the more we struggle, the sooner we will breathe our last.

 Perhaps the wisest thing to do is to lay still and preserve the rest of our energy. Let the election come and hope for the best.

The bad news is, "moderates" can be scolded by the left and right.

On one side, elections are linked with "legitimacy", something a coup can never provide. There are people who will never accept a charter written under a military regime, and a general election that is organised under such a constitution is out of question. The other side would argue that holding an election while the influence of the "old power" remains widespread is useless.

Worse news is that the main protagonists apparently or allegedly do not think an early election will save the day. Sondhi, who was instrumental in the downfall of Thaksin, seems to be testing the waters on the possibility of postponing the December plan. Whether he's reflecting the thoughts of the generals who ousted Thaksin or is simply playing into their hands remains to be seen. Signs and rumours emerging from the anti-Thaksin camp are ominous all the same.

The Thaksin camp wouldn't like an early election for obvious reasons. Strategically, they must want to buy time until anti-coup resentment, frustration and dissent hit their peak. While largely clandestine, they are well-organised and well-oiled. Reports of them taking over anti-coup forums to the dismay of democracy idealists have become more common and, according to leading anti-Thaksin activist Suriyasai Katasila, they are waiting patiently for the middle-class to lose its patience with the interim leaders. The planned December election surely can't bring Thaksin back - another upheaval may.

December is a long way off for us but time will be flying for the rival camps. The generals, if they have begun to become addicted to power, will feel they haven't had enough. But if they sincerely want to return it to the Thai people, they will feel the heat and scramble to carve a safe exit for themselves. Abhisit has warned them against getting preoccupied with "how to safely get off the tiger's back", saying it would ironically make their "exit" more dangerous.

 The Thaksin camp doesn't need time to build such a safety net. Thai Rak Thai is on the brink of being dissolved and corruption probes have begun to deliver real blows.

Cynically speaking, rocking the boat and betting on fresh turbulence is better than sitting still and waiting for an election to seal the questionable "legitimacy" of the party's dissolution and the graft rulings against its members.

So, how can we last till the planned December election?

Some people suggest inaugurating more long holidays like Songkran in festivity-barren months or sensitive periods like September and October.

Others propose something be done to exploit the national craze over the Jatukham Rammathep amulets. But then again, they have triggered one fatal stampede and Songkran road accidents have killed more Thais than all incidents of political violence combined.

Will December ever come? Look at the bright side - we all will age much slower this year.

Tulsathit Taptim








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