Rather than reconcile the divisions between the pro- and anti-Thaksin Shinawatra camps, the September 10 coup, like the big bang in the universe, simply created a host of factions and divisions with different political spectra.

The pro-Thaksin camp continued its support for the deposed prime minister and his Thai Rak Thai Party, but the anti-Thaksin faction split into two: one for and the other against the junta.

The pro-junta group is made up of professional and non-governmental organisations, including the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

The other anti-Thaksin groups, including academics, student activists and some grass-roots organisations like the Assembly of the Poor and the Democratic Federation, turned their guns on the junta on the grounds the military coup was undemocratic.

The political situation became tense when all of these political movements began to put their demands to the junta for difference purposes.

The pro-Thaksin camp, which consists of a wide range of people, from the urban poor to officials in ministries and the armed forces, all of whom benefited from the former premier, will do their best to bring down the junta and its government.

They might not be able to bring Thaksin back to power at once, but the strategy is to discredit the current administration and the junta.

They are taking advantage of comparing the current government's performance, notably the economic aspects, with Thaksin's, saying the coup has brought on all of the negative things happening to the Kingdom now.

They have plenty of resources and political tactics for tackling the government, from street protests to information-technology warfare.

Disclosure of the junta's irregularities in its public-relations spending, details of which has damaged outspoken junta member Saprang Kalayanamitr, is only one small sample.

The former anti-Thaksin group that has turned into anti-junta factions like the Democratic Federation, the September 19 Network and other anti-coup groups are relatively small compared with the pro-Thaksin camp.

But they are likely to get more allies from former coup supporters who are disappointed with the government's performance, such as the anti-free-trade groups.

This group shares common objectives with the pro-Thaksin camp in bringing down the junta and its government. Its members might not know how to achieve the goal and have no blueprint of what to replace the junta with, but they at least could make a lot of noise against the current administration.

The coup-friendly movement, the PAD, has taken a strange stance towards the junta and the government, due to its inside complexity.

PAD coordinator Suriyasai Katasila said his organisation fully supported the junta and the government, but de facto leader and media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul fired a drastic salvo at the government, notably at Prime Minister Surayud.

Sondhi employed a partial tactic to deepen divisions between the junta and the government by accusing Surayud of making a deal with Thaksin for his own political soft landing. He also demanded that Surayud should quit and threatened to call a huge street protest against the government.

The PAD's move was a tactic to provide an excuse for the junta to exercise its authority to revamp the government and retain power. Sondhi has already floated the idea of delaying the general election - contrary to Surayud's idea of holding it in December.

A delayed poll would simply mean an extension of the junta.

Other PAD members might not benefit from the junta's extension, but Sondhi needs consistent political power to re-establish his media empire firmly. Sondhi put a lot of investment into toppling Thaksin but received less than others.

His show on state-run television had too short a life - only 10 days - and did not generate income. Before the political wind changes, he needs time to lay the grand fundamentals for his business - notably his pet project, ASTV.

But escalation of political uncertainty has never been good for the Kingdom - and especially not for the economy, which has shown strong signs of heading downwards.

Tactics to create the sort of political chaos that would give the junta an excuse to retain power or take drastic action would produce similar results within the country.

After the chaos had settled down, the Kingdom would have both a new unelected government and more of the chronic uncertainty that we are currently experiencing.

It would be much better to let Prime Minister Surayud and General Sonthi steer the government and the junta for only another few months like they promised. That is really the only way to get the military back into their barracks smoothly.

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation