SIDELINES
A real test for relationship between CNS, government

The honeymoon period between the Surayud government and some key supporters has ended with the relationship being soured by lacklustre performance, falling short of earlier public expectations that it could deliver what was originally promised and justify the military coup last September.
Members of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) plan a general debate tantamount to a grilling of Cabinet members, particularly Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, to tell the public why they have under-performed in their task despite the lack of pressure from voters and constituencies. With the exception of a few ministers, other chair warmers should find it difficult to justify their continuing presence from now on, and some ministers on centre stage with controversial policy issues might feel the heat of criticism directed at their sloppy and inept handling. For several weeks, supporters of the government were disillusioned by the obvious reluctance of Cabinet members to exercise their authority in dealing with civil servants who had been slow in providing data and information relating to corrupt practices by politicians and their cronies during the Thaksin years. Then it became obvious that Cabinet members had no stomach to pursue investigations into corruption, for fear that politicians would settle scores with them later if they regained power in the general election promised by Surayud sometime in December this year. Surayud is expected to bear the brunt of the criticism during the NLA grilling session. Top of the agenda will be the handling of iTV, the Thailand-Japan free-trade accord, terrorism in the South, the soft approach in dealing with the remnants of Thaksin's supporters - who have become bolder in challenging the power of the Council for National Security (CNS) - and the abusive attack on Privy Council president General Prem Tinsulanonda. Speculation about an undercurrent of conflict between the CNS and Surayud will also be raised, allowing him to give a clear answer as to whether such a rift exits, despite the frequent denials from key military figures. The self-evident posturing and silent power plays through public remarks were hardly concealed. It is not known whether the grilling session will touch on members of the CNS following allegations by pro-Thaksin activists and pressure groups that there has been some hanky-panky business among prominent figures in power. For a few months now the CNS has been frustrated by the inability to contain the audacity of pro-Thaksin hecklers, who used innuendo and insinuation to smear the credibility of military figures. They knew that the activists were funded by elements loyal to Thaksin, whose family members and kin are facing criminal proceedings and possible jail terms. If the CNS members are spared during the censure debate, then it could spark suspicion that the lawmakers have made some secret deal with the military to chip away at the already corroded base of public support for the government. Surayud has been spared by pro-Thaksin activist groups, which directed their tirades at CNS members. The criticism has caused some damage, since the activists managed to establish some reasonable doubt about the targets of their attacks. Some Cabinet members may take more heat in the grilling session, which could in fact have been meant for Surayud, who will also face direct hits. If the harsh words become too much and unbearable, his response could be anything, including resignation - though this is highly unlikely as he has not been known as a man who gives up easily. None of the Cabinet members is a politician. Most, if not all, are retirees from the top ministerial job - permanent secretary. None of them is expected to step down after the grilling session. Clinging on to their Cabinet seats, with honour or otherwise, is better in their view than resigning and accepting blame with grace. The degree of the heat in the grilling session could give some indication as to whether politics under non-politicians will become stormy towards the general election. The fate of the new constitution now being drafted is equally uncertain. If either the CNS or the government decides to go for broke in self-preservation, the consequences could be scary. The CNS is feeling that it should have handled the post-coup situation with a firm hand instead of taking a soft approach and giving up power too soon - thus inviting challenges and risks to its future - while the people and the private sector are concerned about uncertainty and long-term stability. While the political scenario remains murky, with potential trouble brewing, the government is having difficulty in taming the strong baht and stimulating the economy by encouraging public spending. Most important is the need for it to find the best solution to handle itself amidst growing adversity.
Sopon Onkgara
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