Amid the April heat, political temperatures look set to rise - as the anti-Thaksin movement begins to resurrect itself.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which achieved its mission to depose Thaksin Shinawatra as prime minister last year, is considering regrouping, but with a new target.

Over the last month some PAD leaders, with media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul out in front, have paraded to put pressure on the military-installed premier, Surayud Chulanont.

Surayud was accused by Sondhi of failing to complete the coup's four-pronged mission and "making a deal" with Thaksin behind the public's back. Another PAD leader, Somkiat Pongpaiboon, issued a statement calling for Surayud to resign.

The PAD is due to meet on Tuesday to discuss the first six months under the interim government and consider its progress on the Council for National Security (CNS)'s "four missions". It will also make a political stance.

With PAD's apparent goal of attacking Surayud and his close relationship with some CNS leaders, who recently had some conflicts with the premier, PAD's next move may be regarded as paving the way for a second coup.

However, another PAD leader, Piphob Thongchai, insists that his gang has no hidden agenda in taking aim at Surayud but not the CNS.

"Since power has shifted from the CNS to the government and Parliament, our duty is to investigate the government, which we think failed to complete the CNS' four-pronged mission from the coup," he said.

He doesn't support the CNS, but he can't demand anything from the junta as it has no power. So he has to make demands on the government. "I didn't support any of the coups because they make the country worse," he said.

"Surayud was appointed by the CNS so he has to follow the CNS' mission. If the premier doesn't want to do so, or can't, he should resign," he said.

So, what if the PAD revives its campaign and starts to rally against the new government - who would be the winners and losers?

Some say one reason why the PAD has to regroup is the government has paid little attention to it despite its major role in ousting Thaksin. Some National Legislative Assembly members, who are close to PAD, often go on the offensive against Surayud.

Another motive may be that PAD leader Sondhi was sentenced last week by the Criminal Court to two years in jail for committing libel against former deputy transport minister Phumtham Wechayachai.

Earlier, Sondhi had to withdraw a programme produced by ASTV - part of Thai Day Dot Com Co and his Manager Group - from Channel 11 after it was criticised for breaking the law. Sondhi pulled the programme unwillingly, out of necessity.

Suriyasai Katasila, secretary-general of the Campaign for Popular Democracy and PAD spokesman, may also have his own reason for bringing back PAD.

A rumour has spread that Suriyasai is contemplating running to be Bangkok governor next year. So he could take the opportunity of new rallies to promote his image.

For the CNS, it could be to its advantage if the PAD does regroup. It's often said that some CNS members are upset with Surayud's performance and there have been reports he could be replaced by someone else. But CNS chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin has stood still, which has sparked more rumours that some CNS members want to do a "repeat coup".

If the PAD rallies against Surayud, as it did against Thaksin, the movement could open the way for the military to try another takeover. PAD might clash with the People's Television's protest and others protests by anti-coup groups if they hold demonstrations at the same time.

This should make organisers stop and think about their next moves. The PAD's last rally hurt some members as the group was regarded as having, in effect, invited the junta to stage the September 19 putsch.

Last but not least, the social mood now is different from when people protested against Thaksin. Although may not like Surayud's style, many still want the man to continue in the job. They realise that it's hard to find an appropriate person to replace him.

So any unpopular moves by the Alliance could backfire on the group.

Somroutai Sapsoomboon

The Nation