Believe it or not, die-hard supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra are doing the ousted premier a great disservice.

Their latest rally, originally due to be held at Sanam Luang today, is just another example of the continuing downward spiral of fractious politics.

Society remains in suspense as rival sides descend into a bottomless pit of venom. And Thaksin is likely to suffer every inch of the way while his supporters, paradoxically, try to salvage his name.

The hue and cry about today's rally revolves around the anti-coup banner, although Thaksin is the man at the centre of attention. Authorities have voiced concern that ill-intentioned elements will try to provoke bloodshed in an attempt to bring him back to power.

The theory about inciting violence may appear odd but it should not be dismissed outright, because it could be a catalyst for events in the days to come.

When Thailand was under martial law during the three months after the military seized power, anti-coup rallies were held at Sanam Luang, and elsewhere around the country, but the authorities let them go in order to reduce tensions.

Although the authorities kept a watchful eye, protest organisers and anti-coup activists were free to air their views. After the official lifting of draconian security measures, more protests took place uninterrupted.

Core protest organisers, such as the Saturday Anti-Coup Group and the September 19 Network, have continued to protest against the coup. A dozen other groups have rallied to their flag.

By liberal estimates, each rally attracted hundreds of protesters, and the crowds did not swell to significant numbers even after the junta and the interim government suffered a sharp drop in their popularity rating.

This month, the protest at Sanam Luang changed drastically, with the arrival of the People's TV rally. And the Council for National Security has responded by adopting a tougher stand.

PTV chairman Veera Musigapong decided to rally supporters at Sanam Luang last Friday, citing frustration over the alleged blocking of PTV's satellite broadcast. He had vowed a bigger rally today.

Veera made it clear the rally was not just about media freedom but an attempt to sway public support against the coup and to encourage the people to reject the new constitution when it goes to a referendum.

He and other station managers have ties with the Thai Rak Thai Party although they have denied any official link between their outlet and the former ruling party.

Many former Thai Rak Thai MPs showed up at last Friday's rally.

A week preceding the PTV rally, well-known activists like Weng Tojirakarn and Sant Hattheerat suddenly stepped up noisy protests against the coup.

Last Friday, Veera pushed ahead with his protest even though he did not have a city permit to use Sanam Luang. The crowd came in their thousands. Many expressed loyalty to Thaksin while confessing to having virtually no awareness on issues like media freedom or the draft constitution.

Many private "security guards" were deployed to confront city police, who tried to enforce the regulations. The rally took place after the authorities backed down.

This confrontational tactic was unprecedented. It had not been seen in other recent anti-coup protests or in last year's street protests organised by anti- and pro-Thaksin campaigners.

The CNS has deep suspicions about the PTV rally and the activists linked to it. Intelligence and security officials sounded the alarm after protest organisers fanned out upcountry to entice villagers from the Northeast to travel to Bangkok.

The majority of rural villagers are still loyal to Thaksin, although they may not realise they are just pawns in a new political power struggle.

Rumours are spreading like wildfire upcountry about large cash incentives to join the PTV rally and even more rewards if Thaksin is returned to power. No one is certain about the origin of these rumours, which do not put the ousted premier in a good light at all.

One theory is a plan to incite violence, and that certain pro-Thaksin activists allegedly hope to repeat the traumatic 1992 "Black May" incident and cause military control to crumble.

Authorities suspect rally organisers want to exploit the protests in coming weeks and months to sway public sentiment against the draft constitution. Then the CNS would be forced to enact a charter of its own prior to holding a "compulsory" general election.

Forcing a CNS version of democratic rule on the people would guarantee trouble, and possibly bloodshed. Thaksin's supporters hope their leader would then make a triumphant comeback.

There are few hard facts to back up this theory, but it explains why CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has been eager to declare a state of emergency in Bangkok. Sonthi reportedly wants to pre-empt any further political chaos.

A quick glance beyond the country's western border would confirm that a popular uprising does not always advance democratic rule. In fact it could lead to greater military control.

If Thailand descends to the verge of bloodshed, a second coup is sure to happen. And if it does, the door for Thaksin to come back might be closed for good.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation