General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Army chief, has recommended that a state of emergency be imposed in Bangkok to prevent political rallies at Sanam Luang from developing into a full-blown crisis.

The Council for National Security (CNS) is afraid that those at the rallies will intensify their attacks on Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda. Attacks against Prem would have far-reaching implications, further deepening the political divide and sowing the seeds for possibly bloody turmoil.

But Surayud has his own opinion: if he were to go along with the recommendation to declare a state of emergency, his government would be finished in no time. A state of emergency on top of the September coup would invite further political provocations and challenges.

There is hardly any unity left within the CNS. The men in uniform are fighting for power among themselves as well and there have been rumours of a counter coup.

If Surayud were to do nothing, elements of the previous regime would strike back in a tit-for-tat fashion. For the moment, Surayud can only hope to buy time. His support is getting weaker.

After meeting with the military leadership yesterday afternoon, Surayud decided not to declare a state of emergency, which might lead to further political confrontations. Instead, the police and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration authorities have been instructed to prevent protest groups from using Sanam Luang for political rallies.

To reduce the pressure, he also announced a date for a fresh election, which will take place either on December 16 or 23 this year.

Still, the stage is set for yet another round of power plays - a situation that is reminiscent of the political crisis Thailand went through painfully last year. Everything has been turned upside down. The cast of characters in the Thai political theatre has changed roles to the point where you can hardly differentiate the good guys from the bad guys.

Veera Musigapong, a Thaksinite and founder of PTV, has put up a fight since the CNS has blocked the station from airing its news. Veera and PTV are an answer to Sondhi Limthongkul and ASTV. Veera, along with 12 other protest groups, attracted some 4,000 supporters in a rally at Sanam Luang. The target of the rally was General Prem, who was accused of masterminding the coup.

At this time last year, Sondhi, backed by the Thai middle class, was hosting his Muang Thai Rai Sapada talk show every Friday to rally support for the ouster of Thaksin Shinawatra, then prime minister, from office. Thaksin was accused of selling national assets to Singapore, presiding over a corrupt regime, destroying the checks and balances in Thai democracy and making several remarks that bordered on lese majeste. Sondhi's ASTV, also available on the Internet, became a powerful political tool to mobilise public opinion, which eventually helped to bring down the Thaksin regime after the political turmoil that lasted for nine months after the sale of Shin Corp.

If Sondhi could become one of the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy, which staged street protests against Thaksin for several months and acted as a catalyst for the military coup, then why can't Veera do the same? Last year the political target was Thaksin; this time around, it is General Prem. Veera has also taken on General Sonthi directly by threatening to expose his double marriage.

The protest groups consist of the Saturday People Against Dictatorship, the September 19 Network Against the Coup, the Group for the Constitution of 1997, the Citizen's Evolution, the Urban Poor Love Democracy, the Farmers for Democracy, the Federation for Democracy, the Heroes for Democracy, Pirap Khao (White Pigeon) 2006, the Federation for the Protection of Taxi Drivers' Interests, the People's Television and Taxi Drivers' Community Radio FM 92.75, the Group for the Protection of People's Rights and Freedom and the Assembly of People in 19 North-eastern Provinces and the Forum of People's Democracy. You never know whether these groups will eventually merge, in a similar manner to the People's Alliance for Democracy, to become a political force with an aim to oust the CNS and the Surayud government.

The irony deepens as Thaksin has been sending messages from abroad claiming that he is an elected leader and a champion of democracy and that the Thai people will soon rise against the military dictatorship. The CNS and the Surayud government were mostly welcomed when they stepped in to defuse the political crisis, but now they have found out that the amount of time they had to play the role of hero was limited.

There are more ironies. In May of last year, before the People's Alliance for Democracy surrounded Government House, Thaksin summoned General Sonthi for a meeting at Baan Pitsanulok. He wanted General Sonthi to go along with him in declaring a state of emergency in Bangkok so that he could wipe out the People's Alliance for Democracy. But General Sonthi refused to do so. He argued that the street protests were peaceful. From that moment, his relationship with Thaksin was broken beyond repair.

But Thaksin still had a draft of the state of emergency in his hand. When he travelled to Finland to take part in the Asia-Europe meeting in September, he brought along that draft in his bag. When General Sonthi moved out his forces to stage a coup on September 19, Thaksin put up a fight from New York. He declared a state of emergency in Bangkok and ordered the sacking of General Sonthi. By that time it was too late. General Sonthi had complete control over Bangkok and the entire country.

Now General Sonthi himself would like Surayud to declare a state of emergency to pre-empt the elements of the previous regime from gaining momentum. He senses that his enemies are zeroing in closely in order to incite a situation that would be reminiscent of the May, 1992 tragedy. These are dangerous times.

But Surayud does not concur because he believes that the time is not ripe yet.

Well, Thai politics goes on like a merry-go-round. So, just don't blink.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation