More than 16.4 million Thais are now living in areas at risk from rising sea levels and intense cyclones, according to the first global study to identify populations at greatest danger from problems linked to climate change.

The International Institution for the Environment and Development (IIED), a London-based non-profit research organisation, yesterday released the findings of its Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project.

It showed that Thailand was among 10 countries with the largest number of people living in coastal areas that lie at 10 metres above mid sea level - areas that would be affected most by natural disasters caused by a rise in sea levels.

Last month the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that sea levels could rise by tens of centimetres this century, making coastal populations more vulnerable to flooding, storm surges and more intense tropical cyclones.

But despite the warnings of the IPCC and the IIED, global populations are moving in the opposite direction of safety. The IIED found that 634 million people - one-tenth of the world's population - live in risk-prone areas.

The vulnerable populations are clustered in 10 countries. Eight countries are in Asia: Thailand, China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines. The two other countries are Egypt and the United States.

The 16.4 million Thais at potential risk are mainly clustered in the provinces along the Gulf of Thailand, including Bangkok, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Samut Prakan, Samut Songkram, Chanthaburi and Pattani. But there are human settlements in areas at risk from natural disasters caused by climate change in more than 20 other provinces throughout the country (see graphic).

The IIED findings are in line with global disaster statistics which show that between 1994 and 2004, Asia accounted for about one-third of the 1,562 flood disasters, half of the 120,000 people killed and 98 per cent of the two million people affected.

The IIED called for global action to limit the effects of climate change, assistance to help people migrate from danger areas and modification of urban settlements to reduce their vulnerability.

"It's too late to rely solely on a reduction in greenhouse emissions to mitigate climate change, although this is clearly an imperative," Gordon McGranahan of the IIED said in a statement released yesterday.

The full version of the IIED report and its recommendations will be published and distributed worldwide next month.

Pennapa Hongthong

The Nation