Until their much-publicised lunch last week, a countdown to the end of the military-installed administration seemed to have begun.

Because of its sheer incompetence and lack of vision, the six-month-old government has been a big disappointment. Some of the generals in the all-powerful junta have privately made known their displeasure with Prime Minister Surayud, who is seen as indecisive and directionless. There were even rumours that the CNS had already started working on a Plan B that would not have the former privy councillor in the picture.

General Surayud's sense of complacency and his hands-off style of leadership is costing the generals dearly in terms of eroding popularity. It is obvious that the government's continually plummeting approval rating is also dragging down the junta.

The CNS generals give the impression that they are more sensitive to public expectations than the prime minister and his administration. There is a mounting sense of frustration as their repeated attempts to prod the government to respond more enthusiastically to the plight of people living upcountry seem to fall on deaf ears. The generals are well aware that public disillusionment with the government is undermining justifications for the September 19 coup that ousted the Thaksin administration.

The junta's choice of General Surayud, a former army chief recognised for his honesty and professionalism, was initially seen as a wise decision as the country was in need of a leader with connections in high places and who had the respect of the military leaders. But time has proven that what looks good on the resume does not necessarily guarantee good performance.

The infighting within the government that eventually led to the resignation of Pridiyathorn Devakula, the deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs, only highlighted the ineffectiveness of Surayud's leadership.

But Pridiyathorn's departure, despite the circumstances surrounding it, turned out to be a blessing in disguise. It provided General Surayud with badly needed breathing space to get his government's act together. Pridiyathorn failed miserably to live up to his reputation as a no-nonsense technocrat whose experience as the former central bank governor would help the interim government focus on how to steer the country out of its current economic doldrums. Thus, it was not surprising that there was no mourning after his sudden resignation.

It is no coincidence that the lunch between members of the Surayud administration and the CNS generals took place in the aftermath of the Cabinet reshuffle. Though the changes in the Cabinet line-up were minor, the inclusion of widely respected economist Chalongphob Susangkarn as finance minister, came as a big boost for the administration. The week that followed also saw a concerted effort by both the prime minister and his Cabinet members to project an image of a government having a mission to accomplish.

While CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin tries publicly to maintain a semblance of normalcy in his relationship with Prime Minister Surayud, in private he is known to be unhappy with what he sees as foot-dragging on the part of the government he installed. He came up with the idea that members of the junta and the Surayud Cabinet should sit down for lunch together to discuss priorities and make sure they are on the same wavelength.

General Sonthi obviously realises the CNS is having difficulties trying to justify the coup against Thaksin. But to have a government that fails to deliver will lead to even more frustrations and give the so-called "undercurrents" more fresh ammunition to challenge the junta.

While the lunch provided the junta and the government with a badly needed strategy session, it was also construed as a vote of confidence by the generals for General Surayud and his team, dispelling rumours that they were on the verge of breaking up. But time is definitely running out for both the junta and the government. The recent Cabinet reshuffle should provide Prime Minister Surayud with a fresh start. His reinvigorated economic team has no time to waste in seriously tackling the problems that are engulfing the country. And the prime minister himself must abandon his hands-off style of leadership and start rolling up his sleeves.

The performance of the military-installed government is intricately linked to the country's political future. Whether or not the political reforms that the Constitution Drafting Committee are working on will succeed or not depends heavily on how the people perceive the interim government. Don't expect the draft constitution to pass the national referendum if the next several months are marked by political instability and worsening economic woes.

The CNS and the government are inevitably in the same boat. And each day that passes by makes them need each other even more. The six months that have passed are a testament to their failure. The big question now is whether they have the will and the necessary vision to make a turnaround in their remaining months in power.

Thepchai Yong

The Nation

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