WATCHDOG
Business sentiment hit by government's lack of policy clarity

A top Thai retail executive, who preferred not to be named, told me the other day that he and many of his business colleagues are now fed up with the government's lacklustre performance.
The economy has been directionless over the past six months, making the post-coup situation worse for many businesses and industries, he argued. "Now there is a state of confusion over which way our economy is heading. Given the 30-per-cent reserve requirement on all foreign capital inflows and the pending amendments on the Foreign Business Act, we also feel a sense of protectionism as far as foreign investment is concerned. "That doesn't bode well for several sectors of the national economy or the stock market. It's like we're shutting out the foreigners," he said. "Moreover, the top political leadership is not functioning coherently. For the past two years the private sector have really been on their own, with little or no government help as businesses struggle to survive the economic downturn. "I don't understand why some people are saying that we're cleaning up house so that the economy returns to a more sustainable development path. "Yes, we're sort of taking one or two steps backwards whereas neighbouring countries, especially China and Vietnam, continue to grow their economies relentlessly. "We could be overtaken soon if we don't get our act together because we're walking backwards while they're racing ahead," the executive warned. "I hope the government's direction, especially its economic policy, will soon become clearer and more credible as the economy is slowing rapidly due to sagging business and consumer confidence. "Time is running out," concluded the chief executive, who oversees several mega retail outlets in Bangkok with a large numbers of foreign visitors among their clientele. His arguments reflect a certain degree of hopelessness that probably stems from the government's inability to communicate with the business community properly. Miscommunication is obvious as far as the controversial amendments to the Foreign Business Act and the 30-per-cent reserve requirement on foreign capital inflows are concerned. This has resulted in misunderstandings among a large section of the business community. Even many local businessmen still believe that the legal amendments on foreign business ownership, for instance, are bad - never mind the negative sentiments expressed by the international business community. In fact, the proposed amendments pending approval by the National Legislative Assembly are meant only to ensure that the law is really enforceable. However, it is wrongly perceived that the legal amendments will make Thailand more protectionist and drive away foreign investors. In other words, the government should be blamed for miscommunicating its policy message, resulting in widespread misunderstanding. Over time, the misunderstandings over the foreign business law and the 30-per-cent reserve requirement on foreign capital inflows have become bigger and bigger issues for the government. And time is really running out for the government as there is a saying that in politics perception quickly becomes "reality". Hopefully, Deputy Premier Kosit Panpiemras' projection that the economy will pick up in the third quarter of this year will turn out to be accurate. Otherwise, the government's approval rating will nosedive. Kosit is banking on monetary easing and other pro-growth measures to revitalise the sagging economy. This means that the interest rates will be cut further to stimulate economic activity and that the government will announce more clear-cut measures to strengthen the economy in the long run. According to Kosit, the economic slowdown has stemmed from growing concern about the stronger baht and a reduced growth rate in domestic consumption. "Disbursement of the state expenditure budget has been improving, while the mega-infrastructure schemes should stimulate the economy in coming months," he said. "In addition, state enterprises should speed up their combined investment budget of more than Bt200 billion, so we should see an economic recovery around the third quarter." He also noted that private investors are keen to invest up to Bt200 billion at Map Ta Phut on the eastern seaboard. The government is also pushing for private investment in the production of ecologically friendly cars, which would lead to massive investment in support industries.
Nophakhun Limsamarnphun nop1122@yahoo.com
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