If we look around, there aren't many people to choose from. Dr Kosit Panpiemras, the deputy prime minister and industry minister, is now serving as acting finance minister while the search for the right candidate continues in earnest. Kosit has told Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont that he does not want the finance job. This is understandable because if he were to assume the post, he would not be able to work for a financial institution for at least two years after leaving the job. Kosit would not want to miss his opportunity to return to Bangkok Bank again, where the slot of executive chairman is still being reserved for him.

That is why Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the president of Kasikornbank, came out quickly to deny that he is a candidate for the finance job. No financial executive at this moment would want to hold the finance portfolio for a brief period in this interim government, be dirtied by politics and then left to return home empty-handed.

Other names have popped up such as Virabongsa Ramangkura, Ekamol Khiriwat, or MR Chatu Mongkol Sonakul. Virabongsa has resigned as chairman of the Export and Import Bank of Thailand, prompting intense speculation that he is preparing to take over the finance portfolio. On Wednesday, he was seen making his way to Bangkok Bank to wish Chatri Sophonpanich, the bank's chairman, a happy birthday. General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council, was also there. As such, people could not help assuming that Virabongsa, who is in General Prem's circle, might already have been offered the finance portfolio. By the way, General Prem still holds an edge in Thai politics, fielding "his" people in the government.

Is Virabongsa up for the tough finance portfolio?

Many people would say that it would be more appropriate for him to serve as a deputy prime minister. It is not easy to run the Finance Ministry. A finance minister must be tough, have reserved power, dare to make decisions, know how to use the best people, have a keen political instinct and a good grasp of the fiscal and monetary issues, and, most importantly, have the ear of the prime minister.

Virabongsa belongs to the old world. He was an academic before then prime minister General Prem took him on as an adviser during the 1980s. He played a role in the baht devaluation and later on also served in different Cabinet portfolios. His last political appointment was during the government of Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. He then served as deputy prime minister while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was imposing all kinds of policy conditions on Thailand, including closing down 56 finance companies.

Virabongsa is not known to be a man for details. He holds several advisory positions and is considered one of the leading economic theorists in the country. Before the baht devaluation, he called on banking authorities to devalue the baht to prop up exports. This would have helped the Kingdom avert total disaster. Banking authorities were afraid that devaluating the currency would make the problem worse. Eventually, they were forced to devalue the baht when they ran out of foreign exchange reserves. In the end, Virabongsa was proven correct.

Ekamol, a former secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is known as a financial wizard. He is more of an operations man than a policy maker. He likes the financial markets and constantly stays abreast of global capitalism. However, he has a strong mind for public policy with good contacts around the world.

Chatu Mongkol's name has been floated in news reports as a candidate for the finance portfolio as well, and he might be the most suitable candidate at this moment. He understands the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand inside out. He was a career official at the Finance Ministry, rising to the top job as permanent secretary before moving on to become governor of the Bank of Thailand at the height of the Thai financial crisis in 1998.

In a recent TV interview, he said he was proud of three things he accomplished at the central bank. First, he was able to bring officials at the central bank down from their ivory tower. One of the main reasons for the 1997-98 financial crisis is that banking authorities then had insufficient knowledge of financial markets. They lost out in the baht battle. Chatu Mongkol went in to restructure the central bank, encouraging its people to interact more with financial markets and institutions. To an extent, he was able to rebuild confidence in the central bank. Second, Chatu Mongkol was able to introduce inflation targeting as an anchor of the Bank of Thailand's monetary-policy management. Before the baht devaluation, the fixed exchange rate was the anchor. Chatu Mongkol believes that inflation targeting is the best tool to ensure macroeconomic stability. Third, while the IMF was prescribing a high interest-rate policy to defend the baht, Chatu Mongkol used guts to bring the interest rates down. He succeeded in winning the confidence of financial markets, convincing them that loosening monetary policy would help accommodate economic recovery. He was right on the mark. The IMF could not revise its textbook in time. One foreign bank executive told me several years ago that Chatu Mongkol summoned foreign bankers to his office during the baht crisis. One by one he went after the bankers warning them not to speculate on the baht. He even pointed his fingers at their faces. The foreign bankers were shocked, but it worked.

Chatu Mongkol also said in a TV interview that if he were in charge now at the central bank, he would not have introduced the 30 per cent reserve requirement to curb baht speculation. Instead, he would deal with the institutions or the funds on a case-by-case basis to deter them from speculating on the baht.

It is up to Surayud to pick the new finance minister. He will take his time to choose the best candidate. Some people say he might also want to go for a younger candidate to get away from the old generation. Nothing is set yet. Surayud is also likely to reshuffle his Cabinet in a big way in order to salvage a wrecked ship. In the end, Surayud might also have to fight for his own job. Thai politics in the near-term looks unstable indeed. 

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation