Thailand could plunge deeper into another political and social crisis if the government continues to stumble in different directions instead of focusing on rescuing the country from the post-Thaksin crisis, a leading social critic said yesterday.

Prominent Thammasat University sociologist and analyst Thirayuth Boonmi said post-Thaksin Thailand had witnessed weaknesses in almost all major institutions, be they politics, the bureaucracy, the technocracy, military, academia or media. Even traditional institutions and the judiciary system had been affected by conflicting ideologies.

"People are now in confusion and an unstable state of mind, a condition that makes them prone to further impasses and conflicts," Thirayuth said. "All these combined will lead to a rough and unstable political future. No matter how good the draft constitution turns out to be, it won't help much."

In such a shaky situation, the Council for National Security (CNS) and the Surayud Chulanont government have demonstrated little leadership to take the country out of the crisis, Thirayuth added. The CNS and the government, which seems increasingly insecure because of growing public criticism of its failure to undo the damage caused by the Thaksin Shinawatra government, had resorted to authoritarianism.

Thirayuth cited the recent tactics of "divide and rule" as demonstrated by the appointment of Somkid Jatusripitak to weaken the Thai Rak Thai Party.

Another example of old-time authoritarianism was the suppression of peoples' organisations and political parties from participating in politics.

"Thailand lost its sovereignty to the [International Monetary Fund] in the economic crisis in 1997 and now it has lost democracy to the September 19 coup," the renowned critic said.

The country was also facing new kind of risks such as the deepening conflicts in the troubled South, international terrorism and emerging diseases, he said.

In his regular political and social review, Thirayuth felt that Thaksin's political career had ended. His struggle for power from abroad would not do him any good because the international community accepted Thailand as a whole rather than Thaksin as an individual.

"Inside the country, people have also abandoned Thaksin as they can see now that he is more of a problem than a solution. To them, Thailand already has enough problems without Thaksin," Thirayuth said.

However, the government must turn the "we can survive with Thaksin" mindset into an opportunity to totally demolish Thaksin's legacy and build harmonised co-existence with globalised capitalism and the sufficiency economy.

But he said leading Thai citizens and aristocrats had a naive belief that if they, the "good and clean people", enter politics with good intentions, their goodness would eventually undo the evil and harm caused by politicians.

"They don't seem to realise that there are still needy villagers who seriously lack economic materials. The Surayud government should stop seeing its roles as an ad-hoc administration and start taking villagers' needs more seriously," he noted.

Individual people in the government also carry with them a huge ego which weakens their ability to coordinate and work as a team. They also have a strong distaste for criticism. At the same time they also tend to be attracted by the tantalising prospect of power and forget that their legitimacy depends on acceptance by the people.

The Surayud government should realise that the consequence of its failure to manage the country with competency could plunge Thailand into another major social and political conflict. The ideological rifts from the Thaksin era would be widened.

In the next few months the government may see itself at the central of debate and decline of public trust. Despite his wishes, Thirayuth said the country might see widening conflicts between the CNS and the government.

"Surayud may have to resign and the CNS would have to replace his [administration] with a new one that has a shorter time and less legitimacy with which to work," he said.

The military, meanwhile, could feel the growing pressure of social criticism and react emotionally by refusing to let go of power, he said.

Interior Minister Aree Wongaraya yesterday attacked Thirayuth for criticising the government for doing nothing to solve the violence in the South.

Aree said his ministry had tried to persuade people to cooperate with the government.

"Every work needs a plan. We can't rush the people. If we want them to understand and join us we have to make them know that all benefits will fall to them," he said.

Government spokesman Yongyuth Maiyalarp said the government needed time to solve the violence in the South since it was prolonged and tended to be more violent.

"The premier has done much to solve the problem and we will continue to do our job," he said.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation