Thailand is undergoing a re-alignment of power and the Northeast will be a decisive battleground to elect the next coalition government of three to five parties - a sharp contrast to the authoritarian rule of the ousted administration.

If the current party hopping is any indication, the Thai Rak Thai Party is gradually breaking up into several offshoots. This is happening regardless of the outcome of the judicial review on electoral fraud.

Political veterans have started to form new alliances and the once mighty party is slated to take a backseat in politics should the Constitution Tribunal allow it to stay intact.

The emerging political landscape will see several Thai Rak Thai segments become the swing vote to decide the formation of coalition and opposition alliances.

Although their party is virtually history, former government MPs still have close ties with the north-eastern constituents who elect one-third of House seats - a decisive voting block.

Mainstream parties like the Democrats, Chat Thai, Mahachon and Pracharaj have claimed the South, the Central region and the North as their backyards, but their combined efforts have failed to achieve a significant presence in the Northeast.

As things stand, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa are the leading

contenders to form the next coalition.

But this will happen only if either one of them can mend fences with the Thai Rak Thai offshoots.

If political animosity persists, the next coalition will face mounting instability and the Democrats might see themselves in opposition once again.

Banharn is known to have successfully executed many political flip-flops, hence his party is expected to smoothly ally with former rivals.

The Thai Rak Thai offshoots are emerging to group around three main factions destined to evolve into new parties.

The first faction is being led by key figures like Thai Rak Thai acting leader Chaturon Chaisang and three party executives: Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, Newin Chidchob and Pongthep Thepkanchana.

Should the former ruling party be dismantled for electoral fraud, Chaturon is expected to form and lead a new party for die-hard supporters of populist policies.

His best prospect is to become the next opposition leader if his party can manage to win sufficient votes.

The second faction is under the leadership of political veteran Suwat Liptapanlop. Its key ally is Pinij Charusombat - who is a National Legislative Assembly member - and seen as close to the junta.

Suwat's voting block from Nakhon Ratchasima alone would ensure coalition seats for his faction. He may also emerge as the kingmaker to name the next prime minister should Abhisit or Banharn falter in forming the coalition alliance.

Under this scenario, doubts linger that Suwat may cast his decisive vote to support a prime minister who has not run in the general election.

The third faction is now known as the Matchima Group under the leadership of Somsak Thepsuthin. It has evolved from a Thai Rak Thai splinter - the Wang Nam Yom faction.

Somsak's original strongholds are located in the lower northern provinces and Matchima's clout has been enhanced by support from several cliques of former north-eastern MPs.

Many of these MPs used to be members of the New Aspiration Party under the leadership of former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.

They still have hopes of reviving their old banner and may part company with Somsak if Matchima fails to evolve into a major party.

Somsak's trump card will be if he manages to install former deputy prime minister Somkid Jatusripitak as the party's leader. If the wooing of Somkid fails, Matchima might become only a minor voice in politics.

Waiting in the wings to welcome splinter groups are Sanan Kachornprasart of Mahachon and Snoh Thienthong of Pracharaj.

Key political players, like Abhisit, Banharn, Suwat, Chaturon, Somsak, Sanan and Snoh, have worked together before and witnessed so many ups and downs in their past alliances.

They are flag bearers to ensure that democratic rule moves forward, but if the new power alignments fail to take off, then the political prospects look bleak and the military will become a permanent fixture in politics as a quick fix for volatility.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation