He said that the military would continue to pull the strings from backstage once the top brass stepped down from their official posts.

At Thursday's seminar entitled "Thailand: Future Path", held by the Sasin Graduate School of Business Administration and Matichon newspaper, Anek told the audience that the majority of Thais apparently felt they had won a brief respite when the military staged the coup to oust the elected, though polarising Thaksin regime on September 19, 2006. Then, he said, they felt somewhat disappointed that the Surayud government really had not lived up to high expectations in running the country over the past four months. The Surayud government is kind-hearted, but it's not decisive.

Many Thais share the opinion that the future is rather cloudy and that the democratic struggle will be protracted as the military will remain the predominant player, albeit informally, for quite some time. This is likely to be the situation for at least two years following the dissolution of the Council for National Security (CNS) later this year.

On the new constitution, Anek says that one of the ultimate objectives is to ensure that once it is promulgated, it is not torn up again any time soon. The last charter lasted nearly 10 years. Basically, this means determining how best to accommodate the universal values of democracy in the Thai political context. A very Western democratic charter would not last, he warns.

Anek has long championed the notion of twin political forces - urbanites and rural folk - and this proved to be the case last September after urbanites essentially joined forces to oust the Thaksin regime, which was still popular in rural areas. This being the case, Anek says, reconciliatory politics is increasingly unavoidable in the Thai context.

Globalisation and the sufficiency-economy model are good examples of populist policies as exemplified by the previous Thaksin regime that may have to be substituted for what he calls a progressive welfare regime. After all, a patronage-based society and a truly Western-style democracy do not fit together seamlessly. As the next polls are likely to be held by year's end, all politicians and political parties will have to factor in the military's upcoming predominant role.

Dr Chai-anan Samudavanija, a veteran political scientist who spoke at the same event, believes that democratic reforms will take place slowly over the next two to three years, during which technocrats and bureaucrats will be more powerful politically as political parties will need them to help run the country.

During this period, he said, royal initiatives on the sufficiency-economy model will replace populist policies. Politics will be less sensational and will move at a slower speed than in the past five to six years.

On the economic front, Dr Supavud Saicheua of Patra Securities noted that the new constitution, which is supposed to be ready for a referendum around July of this year, would be a key measure of Thailand's political situation in the eyes of foreign investors. If its contents have the potential for increased political stability, the new charter will likely boost foreign investment, he says, and the political risks in Thailand will reach their peak around the second quarter of this year when the Constitution Court rules as to whether any political parties should be disbanded for breaking electoral law.

For the past four months, foreign investors' sentiment towards Thailand has not been favourable, given that the Surayud government has been perceived internationally as attempting to get rid of the remnants of the previous regime and overthrow its economic policies.

The Foreign Business Act revisions proposed to the National Legislative Assembly, the 30-per cent reserve requirement on foreign capital inflow and the Public Health Ministry's plan to break the patents of certain drugs for humanitarian reasons are among the measures often cited by the international media as examples of how the Thai government no longer welcomes foreign investment.

 Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com