Both countries play a pivotal role in Thailand's security, as well as its political and economic wellbeing, especially in the aftermath of the September 19 coup.

The US and China have each taken a distinct approach towards Thailand. At home, they were among the first countries to congratulate Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, but both have greatly differed in their follow-up diplomatic activities. While Washington loudly condemned the coup, China was mute under the pretext of the principle of non-interference. An immediate ban of bilateral military assistance worth US$24 million (Bt818 million) was quickly imposed a few days after the coup by the US.

Speedily and discretely, China moved in to fill the void left by the US ban with a special assistance package that included $49 million worth of military aid and training. The good news was delivered to General Sonthi Boonyaratglin during his unpublicised trip to Beijing recently. At a time like this, China's new found power and influence is being felt deeply in Thailand.

Beijing continued with visits by several senior Chinese officials, mostly in the military and security fields. State councillor Tang Jiaxuan, a former Chinese foreign minister, will be visiting Bangkok after Chinese New Year to reaffirm Beijing's support of the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government. Tang has played a significant part in the Thailand-China friendship, as he penned the comprehensive framework of cooperation with former foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan in 1998, which subsequently led to similar agreements with all Asean members. It effectively signalled a new era of closer cooperation between Thailand and China after diplomatic relations were established in 1975.

The exchanging of visits between Surayud and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, could be finalised during Tang's trip. Beijing wanted to delay Surayud's proposed visit to China on February 27 or 28 to either May or June, with Wen's return visit set for the end of the year. Beijing's reluctance drew a shrug from the Thai side.

So far no senior US officials have visited Thailand, except three former presidents, George Bush, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Foreign Minister Nitya Pibulsonggram was unable to secure a positive response from the US State Department on the possibility of him visiting Washington late last month. It was a big blow for him given the extensive network in the capital that he has been building for over a decade. However, the worst has yet to come.

For almost three decades, Thailand and the US have been holding combined military exercises code-named Cobra Gold, which has transformed from a bilateral exercise to what is now the largest US joint military exercise in Asia. But the coup could change all of that this year. Decisions on the exercise will be made next week in Washington. Intra-security agencies will meet and review Thai-US relations and the coup's consequences. At this juncture, preparations for the exercise have yet to be called off.

The coup's aftermath and the latest Thai decision to produce copycat licensed drugs along with subsequent negotiated compromises, not to mention the unfinished Free Trade Agreement, have already turned off some Washington decision makers. They are the same people who follow Thailand's abuse of Karen and Hmong refugees and the country's attempt to forcibly repatriate them. Thaksin Shinawatra's hiring of James Baker's law firm to lobby the Congress and the US government to advocate for his return to power will also increase anti-American sentiment over here.

After a series of bomb blasts rocked Bangkok, Thaksin wanted to improve his sagging image and counter allegations that he was behind the incident. Ironically, he was identified in US Congress documents as the "freely-elected" Thai prime minister, rather than the usual "democratically-elected" leader. Thai folks tend to look suspiciously at the US government's growing ambiguity concerning the government and Thaksin.

Washington-based Thai diplomats know that officials in the Bush administration and lawmakers aere extremely disappointed with the CNS and the government for their failure to deliver a quick return to democracy and a business-like atmosphere. Media intimidation and Internet censorship has further rubbed salt into the wounds and will now form part of the annual human rights report on Thailand to be released by the US State Department at the end of the month. It will be more critical than last year's report.

Moreover, the government also shocked international investors and business communities with its capital control measures. With 35 provinces still under martial law and uncertainties surrounding the drafting of the new charter, it is difficult for Bangkok-based US Embassy officials - the same team that handled the 1991 coup with flying colours - and those from the European Union to defend their host country. The current government's performance pales miserably compared to the similar set up under the leadership of Anand Panyarachun in 1991.

All of the above has not posed any problems for the friendship between Thailand and China. In fact, the coup was a blessing for China, as it can now quickly fine-tune relations with its most important partner in Asean. Although the friendship prospered under Thaksin's reign, there was an uneasiness as the bilateral ties were too personalised and interwoven with his business empire and affiliated groups with vested interests. Thaksin's attitude towards the monarchy does not help. Obviously, Thailand-China relations are more resilient and adaptable to a changing environment, especially when it involves drastic changes of government. This is probably true of China's relations with other Asean countries and it augurs well with the shifting geopolitical realities of the region.

Thailand has tried hard to balance its military and economic relationship with the US with those of rising China. So far, it is has not been able to reconcile the two. As a competitor of the US, China is often more agile and seldom argues for diplomatic limitations as the US often does.