Topics of conversation, of course, revolved around Thai politics, the state of the Thai economy and the country's outlook in the near term. Most of the people I talked to expressed bearish views on Thailand, plagued by as it is confusion and uncertainty, at least between now and the end of this year.

The consensus was that things are going to get worse before they get better. Confidence within the business community has plummeted, as has consumer confidence. There is not going to be any big macroeconomic story from Thailand, as politics has become the overriding factor. The wounds from the polarisation in Thai society created by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra won't be resolved overnight.

I have compiled the 10 most frequently asked questions, along with my answers, from my discussions this past week.

1) Who is really in charge in Thailand at this moment?

Looking from the outside, it is very difficult to see or understand who is actually calling the shots in Thailand because there are too many invisible hands vying for a piece of the action. Thailand appears to have three governments operating at the same time - the Surayud government, the shadow government in the guise of the Council for National Security (CNS) led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and the one-man-show government in exile of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont might have received the full backing of General Sonthi, but he does not have a totally free hand in running the government. Surayud might have handpicked some of the Cabinet members such as Industry Minister Kosit Pampiemras, or Deputy Industry Minister Piyabutr Cholvijarn, but he does not have complete control over the Cabinet. Finance Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula was given his Cabinet post on the CNS's initiative. Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda, the former prime minister, has also had a huge influence over the formation of the Cabinet.

As such, some ministers might be running policies behind Surayud's back. For instance, Public Health Minister Mongkol na Songkhla went on to impose compulsory licensing for an anti-Aids medication and a top-selling heart drug without informing the Cabinet in advance.

Working at times out in the open, but most of the time behind the scenes, the Sonthi-led CNS is focusing on getting rid of Thaksin and the remnants of his regime once and for all. Sometimes the work done by the CNS duplicates that done by the government, such was the case with the complicated seesaw process to remove police chief Kowit Watana.

Thaksin looks to be running a solo government in exile, trying to boost his international image and creating political shock waves at home with his interviews with the international media.

2) What is the real mandate of the Surayud government?

The CNS and the Surayud government had previously looked like wimps because of the way they dealt with the pressing situation in the aftermath of the coup. They thought they could sit back and let the judicial process run its course in dealing with Thaksin and his family's assets. Once the new constitution was finished, they thought, an election would be held and some remnants of the CNS might have stayed on in a different capacity, while Surayud would return to the Privy Council. But with the Bangkok bombings and Thaksin's rocking the boat, the CNS and the Surayud government have come under fierce criticism from those who say that they are doing nothing toward achieving the mission behind the coup. They now have switched gears. Surayud has finally made his first tough decision by removing Kowit, seen sympathetic to the previous regime, from active duty. He is also very angry about Thaksin's Time magazine interview, which appeared to link the palace with the coup.

The stakes are high. The CNS and the Surayud government now realise that they can't fail. They are now determined to finish off Thaksin once and for all, destroy the Thai Rak Thai Party's base and put Thailand back on the path to democracy as quickly as possible, if not by year's end.

3) What is Thaksin's intention in hiring an international public relations firm and two US lobbyists?

After the bombings in Bangkok on New Year's Eve, the Surayud government and the CNS pinned the blame for the attacks on "those who have lost political benefits". Ever since, Thaksin has made a series of attempts to boost his international image. He has given interviews to CNN, The Asian Wall Street Journal, Time magazine, Asahi Shimbun, the Kyodo News Agency and the Al-Jazeera television network. Thaksin's aim in hiring US lobbyists remains unclear, however it is certain that he is seeking out international support and sympathy in a possible bid to return to Thailand to reclaim power. Most importantly, he wants to continue to dominate the Thai media, so that the Thai people won't forget him.

4) So, can Thaksin make a comeback?

Former Thai leaders ousted by coups (Pridi Bhanomyong, Plaek Phibulsongkram, Phao Sriyanond) mostly had to leave Thailand for good. Some of them (Field Marshal Thanom Kittikachorn [after a brief spell outside the country] and General Suchinda Khraprayoon) stayed on in Thailand after their respective political crises but were forced to renounce politics forever. But in Thaksin's case, he is such a unique phenomenon that it is very difficult to make predictions. If you had to put up a bet, it would be safe to say that Thaksin is finished.

5) What is the macroeconomic story of Thailand?

Investors have been terribly upset with the Bank of Thailand's capital controls and the Commerce Ministry's revision of the Foreign Business Act. This has dampened investors' confidence. Pretty soon, the central bank will further unwind capital control measures. Then it will need to spell out the specifics of the revised Foreign Business Act to clear up all doubt before proceeding to put it to a vote at the National Legislative Assembly. The Surayud government has tried to push the expansion of the mass transit system, although probably either one line or none will be implemented. In the meantime, the country's monetary policy will be loosened and the fiscal policy will be put in top gear to stimulate the sagging economy.

6) What is the most important reform policy that we can expect from the Surayud government?

Keep a close watch on the restructuring of the police force. Seripisut Temiyavej, the acting national police chief, has promised to reform the police force and decentralise its power to strengthen the rule of law. Only a very strong government can tackle police reforms. General Surayud has vowed that he will follow through on these reforms to the end.

7) Will the new constitution be less democratic than its predecessor?

Initially, the impetus for a new constitution was to prevent another Thaksin from grabbing power again. However, Prasong Soonsiri, who heads the Constitution Drafting Committee, has vowed that the new constitution won't be a cause for shame when compared to the 1997 charter. The new constitution must be finished within 180 days and retain the key feature of the 1997 charter, the "people's participation in the democratic process". If the new constitution is watered down, chances are that political violence will erupt.

8) What would happen if the new constitution is rejected in a national referendum?

If nobody plays games with the new constitution, then chances are high that it will pass a referendum. If the new constitution is rigged, we can expect to witness widespread protests, which might turn into violence. But the CNS can always go back to the 1997 constitution and reactive it within one month if the new constitution is rejected. Then what would become of its credibility?

9) When will we have a new election?

The new election will take place some time in December.

10) Who will be the next prime minister of Thailand?

After the roller-coaster premiership of Thaksin, and the ensuing coup, Thailand will have to be less adventurous. Pinij Charusombat, Banharn Silapa-archa, Suwat Liptapanlop and the Democrat Party (or the New Democrat Party if the party is dissolved) might form a coalition government. In that scenario, we might see Chuan Leekpai make a comeback as prime minister for the third time. Somkid Jatusripitak, who has allied with Somsak Thepsuthin, might have to wait longer.

Thanong Khanthong

Tha Nation