After an onslaught of negative news that has many people believing in conspiracy theories involving the junta and gloom and doom as regards the planned election, a ray of hope just might be starting to shine through.

It has been the Council for National Security's (CNS) stated agenda that the election to form a democratic government would be held before the end of the year, the new constitution notwithstanding.

Many pundits, however, have cast doubt on that happening, yet indications are now beginning to emerge that the election will go ahead as planned.

CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the junta chief, and the installed prime minister Surayud Chulanont have never deviated from this belief.

Sonthi has repeatedly emphasised that the junta has never wanted to retain power. Many times he has said the election will take place as soon as the new charter is finished.

Prime Minister Surayud has been equally emphatic about the election, exhorting voters to support anything and everything that would ensure it takes place as soon as humanly possible.

But it's from the ranks of the political foot-soldiers that indications are emerging of a turnaround in perceptions of the election actually being held this year - or even at all.

Since the September coup, most members of the ousted Thai Rak Thai Party have been keeping a low profile, ostensibly because they are waiting to see which way the political winds blow. In reality, it's more about political survival that is dependent upon the Constitution Tribunal's ruling on the dissolution of some parties.

So it was with interest that former Thaksin Shinawatra aide Somsak Thepsuthin, the Wang Nam Yom faction leader who defected from Thai Rak Thai to launch a new group, Matchima or Middle Way, opened his new party's headquarters last month.

The group is expected to announce next week that former deputy TRT leader Somkid Jatusripitak will be its leader.

Another Thai Rak Thai faction, Lam Takong, led by former deputy leader Suwat Liptapanlop, is set to announce its break from TRT. It will launch a new grouping this week.

What is certain in these moves is behind-the-scenes manoeuvring. Those involved must have been given the imprimatur of the junta, otherwise it's unlikely they would have gone ahead.

This green light is a signal that the generals are keen for them to gear up for the election.

It could also be an indicator that if TRT was dissolved by the Constitution Tribunal, its party's executives would unlikely to be stripped of their electoral rights for five years, contrary to what was stated in announcement No 27.

The CNS issued the announcement after the coup to increase the punishment against executives whose parties are dissolved.

In principle, this law is not retroactive. If the executives had their electoral rights annulled, it could greatly affect the moves to arrange a fair and democratic poll.

However, it is still a long way to go to the election. The drafting of the constitution, the national referendum and the drawing up of organic laws are not expected to be concluded until November.

So why is the CNS sending such early signals?

It would seem it has two agendas.

First, it wants to show its power over ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra - that it can control all his former political allies by forcing them to leave TRT and form new political groupings.

Suwat's move reportedly resulted from a meeting between him and key people in the CNS last week. The departure of his faction is pretty much the final straw for TRT and the legacy of Thaksin Shinawatra. Expect TRT to implode in the not-too-distant future, unless its demise is hastened by an adverse ruling from the Constitution Tribunal.

Second, the CNS is playing bluff with Thaksin, who has attacked the junta and the government through the international media. Its message is that Thailand is back on the path to democracy.

In recent weeks, Thaksin has appeared on CNN while interviews with him have been published in the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, the Economist and Time magazine.

The CNS fully understands that the international community is concerned about democracy in Thailand. What it wants to see is an early election.

Having sent these signals that Thailand is getting back on track to the promised election, the junta can only boost its own image and that of the government domestically and internationally in the wake of the poisonous attacks by Thaksin.

It could also help its popularity among the people which has been gradually declining amid the perception that Thaksin and his corrupt cronies will never be charged.

Whatever the agenda, the CNS is offering a glimpse of a silver lining for Thailand.

It should augur well, unless the moves are a secret agreement between politicians and the generals to shore up the junta and perpetuate its hold on Thai politics.

If that is the case, then the silver lining will turn out to be severely tarnished.

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation