For businessmen and industrialists, the future of Rayong's Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate looks increasingly uncertain due to the deteriorating environment.

On January 11 the National Environment Board, chaired by Deputy Premier and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras, decided to set up two committees to deal with the issue.

The first body was tasked with researching the detailed correlation between the growing incidence of illnesses among residents and the increase in pollutants released by plants in the area.

The other task force will look for ways to reduce the toxins emitted by industrial operators in the area.

"If factories can't reduce pollution significantly [which would require huge investment], then the area will be declared a pollution-control zone, subject to stricter rules and regulations," Kosit said.

His statement came hot on the heels of plans of nine petrochemical plants to expand their capacity in the area.

The toxins released by 61 factories on the industrial estate have already reached the maximum levels permitted by the Pollution Control Department (PCD).

Based on the most recent study, using a mathematical-model-based forecasting method, two major airborne polluters, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide, are worrisome because their releases are already 200-500 times accepted standards per year.

Studies by Greenpeace Southeast Asia have also found that the releases of cancer-causing pollutants benzene, vinyl chloride and chloroform also exceed the US Environmental Protection Agency's safety-standard.

Overall, the PCD reports up to 40 volatile organic compounds released in the area, of which 20 are carcinogenic.

The National Cancer Institute has reported that it found a higher rate of cancer, including leukaemia, among Map Ta Phut residents than in other nearby districts.

Besides cancer cases, respiratory- and skin-related cases in the area are two to three times higher than in the rest of the country.

Rangsit University's Arpha Wangkiat has reported that water resources in the area are also contaminated by excess amounts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, lead and zinc.

In short, these independent sources of data confirm that pollutants have reached a critical level, posing a serious health threat to residents.

It is still unclear which factories release which pollutants, so it would be hardly possible to order specific plants to control their emissions.

According to the blueprint for the third phase of the National Petrochemical Plan, 56 new plants worth Bt410 billion are to be built.

Overall, the third phase would cover development of an area of more than 10,000 rai over 15 years for the manufacturing of 33 products.

"We don't have the detailed information on these projects. That's a key problem in managing problems at Map Ta Phut," said an official who asked not to be named.

The lack of information has made it difficult to come up with an accurate estimate on the area's "carrying capacity" for polluting industries such as petrochemicals.

In support of the nine plants' investment plan, the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand concluded in a study that Map Ta Phut remains the best option for new petrochem plants due to the availability of infrastructure in the area.

The PCD suggests that Map Ta Phut still has some room for more factories if pollutants are better managed by existing and new operators.

This means the operators must invest more in pollution management.

What is quite certain is that Map Ta Phut will not be able to house the entire third-phase National Petrochemical Plan with all 56 plants, so that a new site must be sought in any case.

Kamol Sukin

The Nation