The possibility that the coordinated attacks aimed at killing and maiming innocent people might have been committed by Islamic militants/Malay separatists, who are waging a guerrilla warfare against the Thai state, was ruled out by the government and the military council. Also emphatically rejected was a conspiracy theory suggesting that the series of eight blasts might have been masterminded by rogue members of the CNS.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and virtually all senior military leaders are of the opinion that the attacks were aimed at discrediting the new government and military junta that toppled the Thaksin regime in a bloodless coup last September 19. As the officially sanctioned theory goes, the deposed leader or his loyal supporters are bent on stirring up disturbances and creating a sense of uncertainty while waiting to stage a triumphant political comeback.

In dismissing out of hand the likelihood of insurgents in the deep South bringing their fight to the capital to raise the stakes in their struggle to create a Muslim Malay homeland in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, the armed forces may be exercising damage control. The credibility of the military would otherwise sustain greater damage if it admitted that its failure to effectively combat insurgents in the deep South had enabled them to carry out the terrorist attacks in Bangkok.

Blaming the previous regime, led by a man of fabulous wealth and unparalleled power of patronage to match, might be preferable, because such a theory not only casts Thaksin in a negative light, but also creates a sense of dependency among members of the Thai public, whether real or imagined, that the country's democracy needs the all-powerful military to guard against formidable anti-democratic forces.

Meanwhile, wild rumours about the alleged involvement of some CNS members were circulated widely enough for top generals who are members of the council to acknowledge them by coming out publicly and categorically denying that the bombings were masterminded by one of their own.

The tendency of the present government and the CNS to jump to conclusions and make known their preferred theories regarding the identities of the masterminds and perpetrators and their motives does not make it any easier for Kowit and his investigators. On the contrary, it leaves them with little room to conduct their investigation in a professional manner. Good police work is not supposed to begin with investigators being told how to do their job and which theories to discard right away, either because they do not agree with the Surayud government and the military council's preconceptions or because they do not suit their convenience.

Eighteen suspects, including 13 military officers, have been taken into custody in a series of raids since Saturday for questioning by police investigators in connection with the December 31 bombings. Sonthi has made sure Kowit understands in no uncertain terms that his job is on the line if he and his investigators fail to bring the case to a successful conclusion and that he will be made to pay for any attempt to turn innocent people into scapegoats.

Kowit now finds himself in a tight spot - one that is not totally undeserved. As it stands, the government and the CNS will receive investigation findings supporting their beliefs and suiting their convenience, even though truth may have to be sacrificed in the process. But both the government and the CNS must realise there is a better way to reform the police force; that is, to transform it into professional law-enforcement agency that is accountable to the public, not an unquestioning servant of the powers that be.