The Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) has been activated to unveil the new constitution within a 180-day deadline, although it is slated to tread a rough and tumble path in rewriting the political rules.

The CDA differs from the drafting process for the 1997 Constitution in one important aspect: its chairman is a technocrat, Noranit Sethabutr, whereas his predecessor was a political veteran, Uthai Pimchaichon.

Of the 100 CDA members, 76 represent the public sector, consisting of technocrats from the government, academia, the judiciary and independent organisations.

There is no political representation in the CDA, even though political parties are entitled to submit their recommendations on the political system via the public hearing.

The CDA's lopsided composition has raised concerns that the charter draft would reflect the technocrats' perception of democratic rule rather than the people's aspirations.

Democracy advocates have been sounding the alarm about the outbreak of social strife if the new charter sanctioned power-grabbing by a particular group, such as the military and the bureaucracy.

The 1991 Constitution triggered the Black May incident in 1992, because one of its provisions allowed political parties to nominate an unelected individual as prime minister.

The bloodshed should serve as a reminder that the people had spoken about having a say in their prime ministerial candidates by casting their votes.

From the past three uprisings, the message should be loud and clear: the people do not want the ruling elite to broker a deal and name the government leader behind their back.

In speaking at public forums for the past few months, former Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai has urged relevant parties not to reopen the debate on an elected versus unelected premiership.

The debate, if revived, would inflame fractious politics and cloud judgement on the larger issue of how to go about repairing the political flaws, Chuan said.

In the opinion of political scientist Pornchai Theppanya from King Prajadhipok's Institute, the push for an unelected prime minister would likely derail the charter-drafting process and foil the new round of political reform.

CDA chairman Noranit has vowed to model the new charter after the suspended people's constitution in a bid to save time as well as prevent relevant issues from mushrooming out of control.

The actual writing of constitutional provisions should commence early next month, now that the CDA has named its 25 charter writers and the Council for National Security picked the other 10.

The charter writing is expected to be complete in four months, plus an additional two months needed for vetting the final draft and holding a referendum, said Noranit.

Based on ideas floated by two major parties - the Democrats and Chat Thai - and law experts, the new charter will aim at preventing a single party from dominating the political landscape and weed out political influence over independent organisations.

The overhaul of the political system will include rewriting charter provisions and organic laws.

The emerging political landscape may see the cancellation of the party-list system, also known as proportionate voting. Future governments will be a coalition of parties with comparable size.

MPs may be allowed to run as independents, in order to prevent the partisan domination.

Single-seat constituencies will likely bow out for multi-seat ones. This is meant for power sharing instead of allowing one particular party to rise above the others.

The judiciary is expected to ensure fairness in screening the office holders for independent organisations.

The Senate may be downsized from 200 seats to 100 and would likely be reverted to an appointed body based on professional groups.

Lawmakers and civic groups will have more flexible rules with which to censure the prime minister and other office holders.

A special court to handle campaign violations and candidacy qualifications will likely be established to ensure justice and lighten the workload of the Election Commission.

The bottom line is that the Kingdom will not see a repeat of runaway power. But it remains unclear whether the next prime minister can achieve enough stability to govern.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation