The Energy Ministry will conclude its new power-development plan (PDP) this month ahead of public hearings in February. Viraphol Jirapraditkul, director-general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, said after the working committee's meeting yesterday that under the new PDP, which estimates the power demand from 2007 to 2021, demand would be revised down.

Lower-than-expected consumption led to the revision. Power consumption peaked in April last year at 21,064 megawatts, growing only 2.5 per cent per annum against the usual growth rate of 5 per cent.

"From the data, we estimate that in the last year of the plan, or 2021, the peak demand will be 2,000MW lower than expected. The new PDP will be drawn up according to the data, based on the anticipated economic growth rate of 5-5.5 per cent," he said.

The revised PDP will also put more emphasis on the purchase of power from small and very small independent power producers, he added. On choices of fuels, prices will determine the authorities' focus. As such, natural gas and coal will be given priority.

"The ministry will finalise all details so that we can launch the public hearing in February. Then suggestions that we receive will be incorporated in the new plan, before we open for the second round of power-purchase bids from independent power producers in April," Viraphol said.

While the authorities will determine the ratio of additional power to be produced by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) and private energy companies, Egat will soon submit a document to the ministry to show its future capacity.

The Energy Policy and Planning Office has recently assigned ERM-Siam Co to study fuel options. The consulting firm will come up with suggestions on the best choice of fuels for Thailand, considering power security as well as the balance of economic, social and environmental factors. The study will cover power generating and the refinery business as well as the overall petrochemical industry.

A preliminary study from ERM-Siam shows natural gas may not be the cheapest fuel for power generation, as its price is closely related to global oil prices.

The study also showed that alternative fuels - ethanol and biodiesel - are uneconomical if the fuels are earmarked for the transportation sector. Moreover, there is limited plantation area for crops that would be used to produce ethanol.

Greater use of natural gas would not greatly reduce environmental impacts in city areas, compared to new technologies such as "clean diesel".

As such, the authorities' move to encourage the transportation sector to use more alternative fuels and natural gas should be carried out on a limited scale. For example, natural gas should be limited to new public buses.