The string of bombs that hit Bangkok on New Year's Eve only accentuates the sense of unpredictability.

The coup-makers might have given themselves a pat on the back for what they claim to be a job well done so far, but they are certainly having difficulty trying to justify their continued hold on power. And it is even more difficult trying to convince their critics that they deserve a role in charting the country's political course.

The new year is likely to bring with it more questions than answers about Thailand's future as the country continues to struggle with one of its biggest political crises. Here are five questions that may help to define the future of Thai democracy:

Will Prime Minister General Surayud Chulanont be able to keep his job?

The answer depends on how soon he realises that he is running a country in a politically unusual time. From the outset, General Surayud has tried to project himself as a reluctant prime minister, saying that he unwillingly agreed to the coup-makers' request to take the helm out of necessity. Of course he deserves sympathy for that but he will be judged by how he performs - not by how he came to power.

His leadership should be guided not by the agenda of the Council for National Security (CNS) but by the high expectations that people have of him. General Surayud has made national reconciliation a cornerstone of his policy. While no one disputes the need to heal the political wounds wrought by five years of Thaksin's rule, much more must be done for the country to move ahead.

Unless he appears to be more decisive and prods his Cabinet into real action, General Surayud can be sure that he will see his leadership increasingly challenged. It's also essential General Surayud distances himself from the CNS, whose days are numbered, and project himself as an independent leader.

Will Thaksin set foot in Thailand again - and how soon?

There is no question about Thaksin's yearning to return. He knows it's his trump card that he will choose to play when he believes the time is politically ripe and that it can effect the political situation here.

But time is not on Thaksin's side. The longer he stays on the sidelines, the greater the likelihood that he will become politically irrelevant. So Thaksin will be compelled to exploit the "undercurrents" that are keeping the generals and the Surayud government on their toes to throw them off balance and keep himself in the picture.

But the CNS also has its own trump card: the sooner they come up with credible charges against Thaksin, the better their chances will be of lessening the former premier's potential to influence the political situation even if he is allowed back.

What is the future of the CNS?

Every day that passes by seems to add to the feeling that the CNS is overstaying its welcome. All of the euphoria that greeted the coup in September of last year is being replaced with scepticism and mistrust - largely as a result of the CNS generals' own doing.

They will most likely come under more scrutiny and criticism as the process of writing a new constitution begins. They will have a tough time convincing people that they have no influence over how the new charter is drafted.

As the promised timetable to relinquish power draws near, the CNS will surely feel increasing pressure in the form of public protests. Despite its name, the CNS will find itself fighting for political security, but the more insecure they feel, the more they are likely to commit additional blunders in the process of trying to stay in power or find a graceful exit.

Adding to the generals' troubles will be the disunity among themselves as political ambitions begin to get the better of some of them.

Will the situation in the deep South get better or become worse?

Every sign points to the potential of escalating violence. The brutal murder of two teachers in Yala last week, despite the unprecedented level of security in the three provinces, is a stark reminder that no one is safe down there and authorities are making little headway in containing the insurgency.

Despite optimism among the top echelons of the military, the truth on the ground only suggests that things will get worse before they improve. That improvement is contingent on how soon the military and the Surayud government can get their act together and come up with a more comprehensive strategy to deal with the problem.

The tens of thousands of troops deployed in the three provinces are basically there to contain the further spread of terrorism. To address the root causes of the problem, however, a well thought-out strategy encompassing all political, social and economic aspects is necessary. However, it seems that the different government agencies supposedly tasked with tackling the worsening situation are pursuing their own separate agendas.

Who is in charge of bringing peace back to the trouble-plagued region? The question still begs answers as much as it did during the Thaksin administration. Army Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin who is supposed to be the point man already has his hands full as CNS chairman.

What is in store for Thai politics for the next 12 months?

Under Thaksin, things were far more predictable. His ruling Thai Rak Thai Party held an absolute House majority and he ruled with an iron fist with little or no political opposition. But with the country still reeling from a year of political turmoil that saw the rules of politics being rewritten, 2007 promises to be a year of uncertainties.

The series of bombings that hit Bangkok on Sunday evening is a reminder that the old power clique is not going to give up easily.

A lot also depends on how such key players as Prime Minister Surayud and the CNS generals perform. They can help contribute to preparing a sound foundation for a democratic revival or plunge the country into another crisis.

 Thepchai Yong