The prediction is made in the "worst-case scenario" of a total advertising ban on alcoholic beverages, which would force local players to shift their strategy from conventional media advertising to other activities to attract consumers and boost sales.

They include below-the-line marketing events, price dumping or even "underground" activities like word of mouth.

The country would witness cheaper beer with five to seven bottles costing Bt100 or liquor priced less than Bt100 by local manufacturers and importers.

"According to the World Health Organisation, Thais consume 8.47 litres of alcoholic beverages per annum on average. However, classifying by categories, we see that almost 7.13 litres is composed of liquors, while Thai people drink only 1.31 litres of beer and only 0.04 litres of wine," said Santi Bhirombhakdi, president of Singha Corporation.

He said Thailand was 85th in the world for beer consumption.

"We expect that if the authority launches a total advertising ban, most of the alcohol players, both whiskies and beers, will shift their marketing strategy to other kinds of below-the-line activities as well as price dumping, which would encourage Thai consumers to drink more alcoholic beverages," Santi said.

A total ad ban would also destroy the brand building of Thai beers and the confidence that foreign customers have in them, he said. Singha spent almost Bt2 billion a year on all advertising and marketing activities in building brands, particularly Singha and Leo Beer.

Santi said a total ad ban would not reduce alcohol consumption in Thailand.

"We can see that white spirits, which have an alcohol content of between 35 per cent and 40 per cent, can grow by between 11 per cent and 12 per cent every year without advertising," he said.

"The authority should not include beer, which has alcohol content of only 5 per cent, with other alcoholic beverages in blaming them for harming society and being a major cause of road accidents."

He said many developed markets such as Norway and Sweden had not banned alcohol advertising. Sweden allowed

businesses to advertise beverages with an alcohol content of not higher than 15 per cent, he said.

Vorathep Rangchaikul, president of Riche Monde (Bangkok), which imports and distributes international liquor brands including Johnnie Walker whiskies, said yesterday that international case studies showed an ad ban would probably increase consumption due to lower product prices resulting from more aggressive pricing.

"As a result, we expect all our brands' sales volumes to increase at least 5 per cent from earlier targets," he said. Prior to the proposal for an ad ban, the company expected all brands' sales to increase by around 10 per cent. However, with the ad ban, sales volume may increase up to 15 per cent."

Riche Monde (Bangkok) also confirmed yesterday that it would host the Johnnie Walker Classic in Phuket in March. Many of the world's top 50 players are expected to participate.

"In regard to the Johnnie Walker Classic, we aim to bring the excitement and experience of this international golf tournament to Thai fans. There's no intent to focus on promoting our products through this tournament," said Vorathep.

Santi said that rather than imposing a total ban on advertising, a more effective measure would be to revise excise tax based on alcohol content.

Singha Corp previously suggested the Excise Tax Department charge a flat rate for all distilled liquors of Bt2.4 per one degree of alcohol content per one litre, and up to Bt7 per one degree of alcohol content per one litre for all types of beer products.

"The move will encourage local brewery firms to launch more quality light beers with lower alcohol, which is a global trend and in line with the government's policy to reduce alcohol consumption among the people," Santi said.

Kwanchai Rungfapaisarn

The Nation