Export target revised on strong currency

The Commerce Ministry announced yesterday that Thailand's exports would be targeted to grow 12.5 per cent to US$145.22 billion (Bt5.18 trillion) next year - figures forced down by the continuing strength of the baht.
The new export target was calculated following talks between ministry officials and exporters, traders, manufacturers and concerned associations. The consultations involved the makers of the country's top 20 export products, covering 60 per cent of the Kingdom's total exports. The ministry said it would nevertheless revise the export target figure every three to six months, in order to adjust export planning. Earlier, next year's export growth was officially targeted at 15 per cent, reaching $140 billion. The rapid strengthening of the baht is reflected in the fact that the earlier growth percentage was aimed at achieving a lower total value of exports than the new target. The ministry also planned to ask the Finance Ministry to provide a short-term assistance measure - tax deduction - to help manufacturers reduce production costs. Thailand's export growth this year is expected to show 16-per-cent growth to $129 billion, close to the official target of 17.5 per cent to $130 billion. "The figure shows 99 per cent of the ministry's goal," said Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet. "The loss came from exports in the last two months being hit by the strength of the baht." The minister said important factors that would reduce the country's export growth next year, as well as the continued strength of the currency, included the global economy slowing by 4.9 per cent and a predicted drop in world trade growth from 8.9 per cent to 7.6 per cent. Moreover, slow growth is expected in the economies of Thailand's major export markets. The US expects only 2.9 per cent growth and Japan and the EU only 2 per cent. India is expected to record no significant growth. To ensure Thailand's export growth, the ministry is negotiating with the country's trading partners in an effort to reduce trade barriers like anti-dumping duties, as well as finding new export markets and bolstering trade with China, India and the Middle East. The government is also trying to conclude free-trade agreements with major trading partners like Japan, in order to ensure greater market access. Krirk-krai said the ministry could not predict whether the baht would continue to strengthen against the dollar. "The baht's strength derives from capital inflow and baht speculation, while the dollar's depreciation is due to the economic slow-down [in the US]. However, the Bank of Thailand and the Finance Ministry are managing to ease the problem," he said. The government will carefully monitor the Kingdom's imports, due to the strength of the baht, and will enhance imports of capital goods and raw materials to support the export effort. Export Promotion Department director-general Rachane Potjanasuntorn said the two export products that would be hardest hit by the baht appreciation were shrimp and canned fruits and vegetables, both of which rely mostly on domestic raw materials. He said shrimp exports accounted for 80 per cent and canned fruits and vegetables 70 per cent of the total production of the manufacturers involved. However, the profit margins of these goods are quite low: only 4 per cent for shrimp and 5 per cent for canned fruits and vegetables. Rachane said the total export value of the two products accounted for only 7 per cent of the country's total exports.
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