In the end, it is all about the damned-if-you-don't.

Yesterday, after a two-day debate and fierce opposition in the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), he was forced to withdraw the bill, which sought to amend the Government Lottery Act of 1974 to legalise the two- and three-digit lotteries. He said withdrawing the bill was necessary to study the impact of the two lotteries on Thai youngsters, whose numbers have quadrupled in this area of gambling.

Yet it was all about an about-face retreat. Pridiyathorn and the whole interim government of General Surayud Chulanont could suffer further political damage from this episode if they fail to back off in time.

On the other hand, the withdrawal of the lottery bill shows that the military-appointed NLA is far from being a rubber stamp. It looked as if NLA member Prasong Soonsiri and other core allies in the People's Alliance for Democracy have succeeded in turning the NLA into a no-confidence debate against their favourite target, Pridiyathorn.

Ironically, Surayud was not a target in this round of character assassination, although he is head of the interim government and he fully backs Pridiyathorn's lottery bill.

Failure to legalise the two- and three-digit lotteries has several implications. First, the government is at risk of losing huge revenue to the state coffers. Since their introduction in 2003, the two- and three-digit lotteries have brought in about Bt130 billion to the Government Lottery Office (GLO).

At a time when it is necessary to run a budget deficit of almost Bt150 billion in this fiscal year to pay for the huge debts incurred from the populist policies of the Thaksin government, Pridiyathorn can't afford to lose the lottery revenue.

Second, the government risks upsetting some 30 million grass-roots people who embrace lotteries as part of their life. One of the reasons that propelled ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's popularity among the grass-roots was his introduction of the two- and three-digit lotteries. Thailand is a country with an exceptionally high incidence of gambling.

The Thaksin government introduced the two- and three-digit lotteries in order to get rid of the underground lottery and to curb the dark influence of the local mafias. It did so by issuing a Cabinet resolution to allow the GLO to sell the two- and three-digit lotteries. But the Government Lottery Act of 1974 limits the GLO to the sale and distribution of normal lotteries only - not the two- and three-digit lotteries.

During the Thaksin era, the ousted premier did not care much about the proper legal process. On the surface, the Thai public supported his initiative to legalise the two- and three-digit lotteries, otherwise the money, which should go into the state coffers, would continue to go underground to enrich the local mafias and other illegal businesses.

However, Thaksin had acted as if the two- and three-digit lotteries were his personal ATM. The lottery proceeds went mostly to the Office of the Prime Minister to support the government's populist policies and popularity instead of being channelled to the state coffers. The police also got a chunk of this lottery money.

The Council of State now has ruled that the two- and three-digit lotteries are in violation of the Government Lottery Act of 1974. This has opened the floodgates. Under intense political pressure, Pridiyathorn has moved on subsequently to bring lawsuits against Thaksin and all the people associated with the illegal introduction of the two- and three-digit lotteries.

He has suspended the two- and three-digit lotteries slated for December 1 and 15, pending the passage of the amendment of the lottery law in three quick readings.

Initially, Pridiyathorn hoped to strike a compromise by having the lottery bill pass the first reading first - before a committee would be formed to vet the bill further. When the political atmosphere had improved, Pridiyathorn would try to get support for the second and third reading of the lottery bill.

But now everything is back on the drawing board. With the lottery law being put on hold, the two- and three-digit lotteries will not see daylight in January of 2007 as promised.

What will happen if Pridiyathorn had insisted on getting the lottery bill passed? He might get the vote, but the rift between the interim government and the rebels in the NLA might become permanently irreparable. Earlier, there was an estimate that opponents of the bill numbered about 40 in the NLA. In any case, the interim government would be able to force through any legislation because the military rulers had handpicked all the 242 members of the NLA to ensure a majority vote.

But the collective move of the rebels in the NLA, voicing their objection to the bill either through political motivation or moral issues, has proven too effective for the interim government to ignore.

Overall, Pridiyathorn's opponents view that once the amendment to the Government Lottery Act is passed, it would automatically whitewash ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and all the other people who were responsible for the illegal introduction of the two- and three-digit lotteries. The Assets Examination Committee is probing the wrongdoings of the Thaksin government regarding the issue, but it has threatened to stop the investigation if the law is passed which would retroactively clear Thaksin of any illegal actions.

Also, the interim government has been accused of adopting a double standard. On the one hand, it is preaching high morals and economic sufficiency. But at the same time, it is moving on to legalise the two- and three-digit lotteries to further confine the poor to the vicious cycle of gambling.

There is no easy out for the lottery controversy, but it will be equally interesting to see how Pridiyathorn overcomes this highly politicised issue to regain his stature.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation