In the early days after the September 19 coup the military chiefs seemed to send out a strong signal that they were determined to bury ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's regime - if not forever - then at least long enough to keep the former PM buried in a political grave.

But the signals seem to be less clear now.

One day before the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR) changed its name to the Council for National Security (CNS), it issued announcement number 27, which convinced the public that the Thai Rak Thai Party may be dissolved after being charged with violating election law.

The CDR announcement No 27 amended the Political Parties Act to allow executives of any party dissolved for violating election law to be punished. It said party bosses would be stripped of their electoral rights for five years.

The Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties, plus three minor parties, face cases for alleged wrongdoing in the April 2 general election, which could see them dissolved, if found guilty.

Announcement No 27 was issued after the CDR dissolved the Constitution Court, some members of which were seen to have too good a relationship with Thaksin. Members of the new Constitution Tribunal were picked from the Supreme Court and the Supreme Administrative Court.

Two days after the announcement, hundreds of the Thai Rak Thai former MPs - including Thaksin - resigned, as they feared the party may end up being dissolved by the new Constitution Tribunal. The former MPs appeared to hope they might escape punishment if they resigned if the law was not applied with retrospective effect.

However, even as the CNS has been criticised for its supposed passive approach and "working too slow" to clean up wrongdoings of the Thaksin regime, the fate of the Thai Rak Thai Party, especially whether it would be dissolved, remains unclear.

Although the decision to dissolve political parties belongs to the Constitution Tribunal, the CNS's role cannot be overlooked because the Tribunal was appointed by the coup makers.

There have been some signs the Thai Rak Thai Party might escape dissolution. Rumours have also spread about Thai Rak Thai bosses trying to bargain the dissolution case with the military junta.

It has been claimed that TRT heavies bargained with the CNS to try to get a ruling whereby only some individuals would be found guilty of hiring small parties to stand in the April 2 poll.

Small parties were allegedly paid to put up "token opponents" so that TRT candidates would avoid running unopposed and thus escape having to win a minimum of 20 per cent of eligible votes, which was considered a problem because of opposition calls for the poll to be boycotted. This was particularly a concern in the South, where Thaksin's party was never popular.

Another rumour has been that the party would serve as a witness to the charge at the Tribunal and reveal evidence that would result in Thaksin being punished. In doing that, it aimed to escape dissolution.

Speculation that the military wants to maintain a power-base in politics also remains. Somsak Thepsuthin and his group are believed to be ready to help some coup leaders stay in power after the next election, if they desire.

What could be a dilemma for the CNS is if the Thai Rak Thai Party escapes dissolution. That may pave the way for Thaksin to make a prompt return to politics.

But if the coup leaders really want to eradicate Thaksin's regime by dissolving his party, the CNS may have another tough decision to make. How would the CNS explain to Thaksin's supporters if the Democrats survive their party dissolution case - but the Thai Rak Thai Party does not?

The CNS missed the bus once when they failed to freeze Thaksin and some Cabinet members' assets, which made it easy for them to transfer, spend or hide their assets.

Instead of putting the onus on Thaksin to prove his innocence, it is the CNS that is desperately hunting for evidence against the ex-PM.

The parties' dissolution case could be another critical test for the coup makers if its wants to drive Thaksin out of Thai politics for good.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation