He is scoring points for himself at the expense of the Council for National Security (CNS). He has gained international recognition for his straight talking. Ironically, he has found more sympathy among the international audience than among Thais. (How are you, George?) Probably, his English speeches have been more directly to the point than his Thai presentations, which sound mostly monotonous.

This has prompted ex-premiers Anand Panyarachun and Chuan Leekpai to warn that the Surayud government must try harder to have a better dialogue with the Thai people and not to worry much about international reactions. For, at the end of the day, what the Thai people think, or what expectations they have of this interim government, is most important. Surayud is now rather comfortable with his premiership. Nobody is giving him a hard time at all. And it looks as if he would like to distance himself as far as possible from the CNS, which brought him to power in the first place. Surayud really knows how to play the game.

The CNS has come under attack for having accomplished very little in the two months after the coup. The attacks have been directed at the CNS as a body rather than the individual personalities who make up this group of military rulers.

Next is General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the coup leader, who is feeling the pressure due to the failure of the CNS to fulfil its pledges, after ousting the Thaksin regime. But he still has the image of a good guy. So the press and the key members of the People's Alliance for Democracy, which is now focusing on keeping both the CNS and the Surayud government in check, still give him the benefit of the doubt. Hence, instead of blaming Sonthi for the sluggish progress in cleaning up the mess left by the Thaksin regime, or fulfilling the coup promises, they are pointing their fingers at the CNS as a whole. Meanwhile, remnants of the Thai Rak Thai are waiting in the wings, ready to strike back any time.

The CNS performance in the post-coup period has not been up to par. So it is not a surprise that there is simmering conflict among the military rulers. You have to keep an eye on General Saprang Kalayanamitr, the deputy army chief, as another key player. He is not happy with the CNS, which is not pro-active enough. He has stepped in to fill this vacuum by becoming, with approval from Sonthi, head of the Special Operations Centre of the CNS. General Anupong Phaochinda is deputy chief of this new body, which is tasked with monitoring the progress of the interim government's policies and the other independent agencies, which are now focusing on tackling the corruption scandals of the Thaksin regime.

After General Sonthi's retirement next year, General Saprang will succeed him as army chief. But he will stay on for only one year before retiring from service, after which General Anupong will take the military helm until 2012. General Anupong will get the big reward for his role in the coup. While General Saprang and General Anupong hold the reins of power, you can bet that Thaksin will never be allowed to return to Thailand. The general understanding among the military rulers is that Thaksin will stay in exile for the rest of his life, like Field Marshall Praek Phibulsongkram.

Thaksin is indeed a lame duck. He can only dream he will be able to return to Thailand after the general election. He is travelling around the region to keep his hopes alive and to keep himself in the headlines. Khunying Pojaman, his wife, yesterday joined him in Hong Kong to celebrate her birthday. There have been rumours of a counter-coup from overseas. "Only one or two billion baht would suffice to stage a coup," someone was heard saying. 

There has been some progress in the efforts to go after Thaksin and his associates. The Asset Examination Committee has ordered Bhanapot Damapong to pay an additional tax of more than Bt546 million over the shares of Shin Corp acquired by him in 1997. A panel will be set up to probe Thaksin's dubious legal process in the stalled privatisation of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. Thaksin is also to be nailed with allegations of his directives in the extra-judicial killings of drug suspects and the unrest in the South. The CNS has just completed a 36-page white paper, which seeks to explain to the Thai public the events leading to the coup, and the reasons behind it.  

General Winai Phattiyakul, the CNS secretary-general, is another key player to watch. He is calling most of the shots. He is known to be responsible for putting together the National Legislative Assembly and the interim government. General Sonthi is the military muscle, while General Winai is the military brain. He is smart enough to keep a low profile. But he is being watched as to whether, through Meechai Ruchuphan, president of the National Legislative Assembly, he will try to influence the direction of the new constitution and Thai politics in order to retain military power in a different form.

Meechai's role has always been controversial. We have to wait and see whether he will cast his dark shadow over the drafting of the constitution. Will we have a conservative version or a democratic version of the constitution? Only Meechai knows best. Unfortunately, MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, the deputy prime minister and finance minister, has become a fat target. He is one of the capable leaders who should help carry Thailand forward when democracy resumes its treacherous course. But he is now on the hit list of Sonthi Limthongkul, Lt-General Chamlong Srimuang and Prasong Soonsiri. You can also add General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh as another strange bedfellow among this trio, which forms the core of the People's Alliance for Democracy. Sonthi has never liked Mom Oui and will try to destroy him when the time comes. Chamlong, for his own religious purposes, is going after the lotteries and alcohol commercials to complicate the situation. Prasong is upset with everything the CNS is doing because it has failed to uproot the remnants of the Thaksin regime.

As observers, we can only keep a watch on how these key players in Thai politics are following their own script. Strangely enough, they used to unite and wage war against the Thaksin regime. But now they are at each other's throats.   

Thanong Khanthong