How smooth the restoration of Thailand's democracy will be is inevitably linked to the succession of the leadership of the Army.

By next September, Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin is due for mandatory retirement and will pass on the torch.

Although Sonthi will remain as chairman of the Council for National Security (CNS), power is actually vested in the Army - not the clique of coup makers.

Under the Interim Constitution, the CNS will cease to function after ushering in the elected government. But Sonthi's successor is likely to have a say on the speed and extent of the Army relinquishing power.

The naming of the next Army chief therefore has a direct bearing on the future of democratic rule.

Three top contenders to succeed Sonthi are Army Chief of Staff General Montri Sangkhasap and Sonthi's two assistants, General Saprang Kalayanamitr and General Anupong Paochinda.

Make no mistake about it. Sonthi still has a firm grip on power. But there is an old saying that people tend to worship a rising rather than a setting sun.

If Sonthi can handle his succession issue without a glitch, then the path back to democracy looks correspondingly promising.

On the other hand, military succession problems coupled with fractious politics will likely delay the resumption of popular democracy.

Following the September 19 coup, the military clique of Pre-Cadet Class 6 seized power in the name of the Council for Democratic Reform, a junta which was later transformed into the CNS acting as a shield for the interim government.

Under Sonthi's leadership, Pre-Cadet Class 6 officers occupy all but one seat on the CNS.

Anupong from Pre-Cadet Class 10 is one of two assistant CNS secretary generals. Another assistant is Saprang from Pre-Cadet Class 6.

Other Class 6 graduates sitting on the CNS are Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal Chalit Pukphasuk, Navy chief Admiral Satirapan Keyanont, Supreme Commander General Boonsarng Niumpradit, Defence Ministry permanent secretary General Winai Phattiyakul and national police chief General Kowit Watana.

Among the eight CNS members, Sonthi, Saprang and Anupong spearheaded the overthrow of the Thaksin Shinawatra government.

Before the military coup, it was clear that Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers, seen as Thaksin's allies, dominated the military presence in Bangkok, the seat of government.

The Pre-Cadet Class 6 clique managed to convince Anupong to switch sides. It also rallied key Army officers, including those from Pre-Cadet Class 9 led by Montri, to stage the military take-over.

To neutralise the influence wielded by Thaksin's military allies, Sonthi had no choice but to play the Machiavellian game of pitching the Class 9 clique against the powerful clique of Pre-Cadet Class 10.

After the successful seizure of power, Saprang and Anupong were elevated to the rank of four-star general. The two became Sonthi's assistants in the Army as well as the CNS.

Even though Pre-Cadet Class 9 officers were left out of the CNS, they were appointed to key command positions.

Montri became the first from his clique to rise to the rank of four-star general as the Army chief of staff.

Three other Class 9 officers, Lt-General Prayuth Chan-ocha, Lt-General Jiradet Kocharat and Lt-General Viroj Buacharoon became commanders of the First, Third and Fourth Army Regions.

With the Class 9 clique controlling three-fourths of the Army, Montri has emerged as the leading contender to succeed Sonthi. He and Jiradet are cultivating contacts with politicians and pressure groups.

Although the two have attributed their networking as an attempt to quell subversive activities, it is undeniable that contacts with key figures can help to advance political and military ambitions.

At this juncture, Sonthi has kept his options close to his chest. He has about 10 months to pick his successor. His first hurdle before finalising his decision is expected in April. The mid-year military line-up will be a first tell-tale sign on the new Army commander.

If Sonthi opts for Montri, the Class 9 clique will be further consolidated. Should Saprang become favourite, key positions might be spread around among cliques in order to help the provincial general catapult himself to power.

Sonthi will likely keep Anupong close to him as a wild card to balance out among the cliques and Anupong's future will hinge on whether he can walk out from under Thaksin's shadow.

Regardless of his choice for successor, Sonthi is expected to fill the vacant seats in the CNS before his retirement. New military leaders need to be present in the CNS in order to ensure the smooth transition of power.

The CNS has 15 seats with eight currently filled.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation