The phrase "political undercurrent" is fast becoming popular among government and military leaders seeking to justify enforcement of martial law.

The phrase appears a simple one but it is difficult to decipher a tangible meaning. What does an undercurrent entail exactly?

Defence Minister General Boonrawd Somtas predicts the lifting of draconian security measures hinges on the dissipation of a "political undercurrent" detected upcountry.

In interviews over past weeks Boonrawd has repeatedly voiced concern about attempts by ousted politicians to mobilise rural people to upset the current political leadership.

For Boonrawd, the undercurrent signifies subversive activities organised by supporters of the deposed government in opposing the Council for National Security (CNS) and its interim government.

Judging from anonymous leaflets and messages circulated on the Internet, opponents of the military leadership are trying to sway public sentiment by attacking the September 19 coup as an unconstitutional way to usurp power.

They also plead for sympathy for the plight of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. A vast number of Thai Rak Thai Party constituents continue to see Thaksin as their political champion.

Premier Surayud Chulanont is aware of this political volatility. He made it a top priority in his first week in office to visit ex-communist leaders who are now opinion formers in rural areas.

Surayud sent a clear message of political conciliation to every stronghold of the once-powerful Thai Rak Thai. He appealed to activists of all stripes to put their animosities behind them and help him restore democratic rule.

For Surayud, the "undercurrent" is the convergence of pressures triggered by supporters of the deposed government and pro-democracy activists who have temporarily sided with the military to get rid of a tyrannical leadership.

Surayud knows his government must remain on good terms with these activists-turned-allies.

Acrimony over Meechai Ruchuphan as speaker of the National Legislative Assembly is a reminder the government is on a short leash in its volatile alliance with various pressure groups.

If the country is to return to government by elected representatives Surayud must succeed in mending fences. This is not an easy task because pro-democracy activists want full retribution for Thaksin. But, too-harsh punishment may shatter a fragile situation for good.

CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin admits the political situation is far from under control. The military takeover was a success but social divisions remain.

For Sonthi, the undercurrent is not just about attempts to destabilise the government but worrisome activities to undo military intervention. The CNS is facing challenges from inside and outside the military.

The constant checks among the top brass are a clear sign that not all military leaders agreed to the use of force to kick Thaksin out of office.

The military clique of Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers - who are seen as Thaksin allies - remains intact although under current circumstances they occupy lesser positions.

And, military infighting is expected to intensify as Sonthi is scheduled for mandatory retirement next September.

If the timetable for drafting a new Constitution is met, a referendum on the new charter will be held around the same time Sonthi names a successor. This could inflame a volatile political situation.

The phrase "political undercurrent" is likely to remain in the lexicon for the foreseeable future. For now it is associated with martial law. Under no circumstances should its usage evolve to justify a military cling to power.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation