Is the news from ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's aides about his return to Thailand the beginning of a fight-back or a mind game being played on the coup-makers?

The news could be interpreted in different ways.

First, Thaksin has tried to remind the public he is "still around", if not on centre stage. He feared the public, especially his strong base, the "grass roots" people, may have forgotten him - despite seeing his face on TV virtually every day for the past five years.

Second, Thaksin made a plea for sympathy from the international community and local people.

His legal adviser Noppadol Pattama said Thaksin was willing to cooperate with the government and the coup-makers to enhance reconciliation.

Thaksin was quoted by Noppadol as saying that he well realised there was opposition to his return so he would come back when the time is right. He also said he loved and worried about the country, like all Thais.

The messages appeared like a plea to the world that, while he tried to behave, he was bullied and blocked by the coup-makers and the government from returning to his homeland.

Third, his words, obviously put more pressure on both the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government to lift martial law, as his lawyer said Thaksin would return when martial law was lifted.

The sooner martial law is lifted, the better the chance Thaksin has of coming back.

Thaksin realised the CNS has been pressured to lift martial law by people in and outside the country. Martial law is a hot potato in the coup-makers' hands, as is the time when Thaksin is allowed to return.

Thaksin appears to want to return as soon as martial law is lifted. But if the military chiefs don't want Thaksin to come back they may have to maintain martial law. It could be a dilemma. If the CNS decides to maintain martial law they are likely to face growing public pressure, as it's impossible to maintain the status quo - with bans on political gatherings and public assembly, etc - indefinitely, as Thaksin well knows.

The international community has echoed calls by local people to lift martial law. The junta cannot ignore international pressure for too long, as it wants to show the world it's on a path back to democracy. Lifting martial law would be a key wave to quickly restore democracy in the Kingdom.

For Thaksin, his strategy is to put the ball into the coup-makers' court. By linking his return with the lifting of martial law he will make the CNS think hard about their next steps forward.

News of Thaksin returning may be aimed at pressuring the coup-makers, who have faced growing questions about the progress that has been made since they took power on September 19.

One thing for sure is the coup-makers don't want Thaksin to return to the country any time soon and won't allow him back until they can establish new foundations without Thaksin's dark shadow lingering close by. But the more they delay lifting martial law the worse it is for the CNS.

The junta is working to block any return to power by the ousted prime minister. One effective way to prevent him from re-entering politics may be to freeze any movement of his money. It might be a difficult job to achieve, but it would surely hinder any unwanted problems should Thaksin return home.

Last but not least, there were leaked reports that Thaksin offered a condition to the CNS - that Thai Rak Thai party members would not move against the junta or stir up trouble if martial law was lifted and he was allowed to come home.

Noppadol also quoted Thaksin saying his family wanted him to quit politics.

Thaksin's past five years have proved that he is not a man

who gives up easily. His pro-mises must surely be hard to believe.

One month has passed and the coup-makers seem to be in testing straits, while Thaksin looks to have clawed some way back to a place where he is ready to fight - using all means.

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation