The main reason the Council for National Security (CNS) has not lifted martial law is the country is seen as not having fully returned to peace and normalcy. There is still an undercurrent of tension.

The CNS is eyeing suspicious groups organised by a political party, whose targets include the wider populace and organised groups in the cities. The suspicious groups were part of its main voter base.

The CNS has said it maintains martial law to support the work of the military in controlling law and order. And probably due to fear of chaos, it remains tolerant of criticisms from foreign countries and has also resisted external pressure, especially from the US, which insisted earlier this month that martial law should be lifted.

There have been continual attempts to cause chaos and stir up turmoil in the country, although it has been almost a month since the Sept 19 coup.

A mere week after the coup, there was near-simultaneous arson at six schools in Kamphaeng Phet province's Phran Kratai and Lan Krabue districts on September 27.

Security officers concluded it was an attempt to cause political disturbances after police found evidence that linked the fires to district chiefs.

Not long after that, there were fires at schools in Nakhon Ratchasima and Buri Ram. However, police said they were caused by a short-circuit.

On Tuesday night, the buildings of Ban Kham Pom School in Samrong district of Ubon Ratchathani were burned down.

There have been no instances of schools being set on fire before in any other part of the country except the three southern border provinces. The unusual school blazes in the North and the Northeast - the voter base of the Thai Rak Thai Party - might be reasonably surmised as attempts to create turmoil by vested interests.

Similarly, the false news leak regarding the cancellation of Thai Rak Thai's populist policies including the Village Fund, the Bt30 Universal Healthcare Scheme, and Small Medium and Large (SML) Village projects might have been aimed at confusing and provoking people during the early period of the coup. The Council for Democratic Reform (CDRM) had to make an announcement denying the reports.

There have also been attempts to pressurise the CNS into lifting martial law and end the ban on political assembly of five or more people so that the party in the eye of the storm could resume its political activities.

Some Thai Rak Thai politicians criticised the work of the CDRM and CNS even while martial law has been effective.

The CNS now distrusts some Thai Rak Thai members.

Although some key Thai Rak Thai members, who were believed to be the brains behind organising mobs of the Caravan of the Poor, and forestry officials, were put in custody for some time before being released, it does not mean the situation has completely calmed down.

As has been obvious, many of the CNS/CDRM announcements have targeted people in the provinces, including local and national politicians.

In one announcement, it prohibited political assembly of five or more people, but in another, it allowed university students to gather and voice their opinions. In another announcement, it restricted the movement of local politicians. That was after the CDRM sensed attempts to mobilise people for a demonstration. Moreover, it shut down community radio stations in many provinces, especially in the North such as Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun and Lampang.

The Second Area Royal Thai Army also summoned local leaders to inform and educate them about the assembly ban.

Meanwhile, maintaining the military force to stand by in many areas, especially on Mitrapab Road - the main road to the Northeast - and Highway No 32, a popular highway to the North, especially in the direction leading to Bangkok, is a measure to prevent the transportation of large groups of people to create disturbances in the city.

According to Lt-General Saprang Kalayanamitra, an assistant to Army chief, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the CNS will not lift martial law before it is confident the situation is fully under control. He stressed the decision must be made after a clear evaluation of the results from the measures employed in all areas, and not just by feeling or anticipation.

"In the restive South, there have been explosions continuously, although there haven't been any devastating cases, but we have to make sure no bad people or third party will take up the chance. Some people might have said they have stopped causing disturbances but they might not be sincere about it," he said.

In maintaining martial law, the CNS might also be weighing the consequences of a possible Constitution Court ruling to dissolve the Thai Rak Thai Party. The decision might anger party supporters, or former Thai Rak Thai members might mobilise people for protests.

It is reasonable to imagine the CNS also guarding against uncertain situations caused by some groups  who either disagree with the coup, or were enamoured by deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra or his populist policies. As CNS chairman General Sonthi has said mobilisation is not too hard to achieve but would be difficult to control.

This coup was about toppling the corrupt Thaksin government, which enjoys staunch support but is also fiercely hated at the same time.

The undercurrent of threat being feared by the CNS comes neither from Thaksin's classmates in the Pre-Cadet Class 10, who were transferred in the recent reshuffle, nor from his classmates who are still loyal to him and planning to overthrow the interim government.

The CNS is more afraid of the masses being mobilised by disgraced politicians to topple the interim government.

Regardless of the rationale, the CNS should quickly lift martial law, free the people and allow them to share opinions, instead of leaving them with the feeling of being distanced or distrusted by the government.

Otherwise, the CNS might face consequences it has not anticipated: suspicion in the eyes of the public that it would like to cling on to power, just like past coup-makers.

Chularat Saengpassa

The Nation