With the nation poised at a political crossroads, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra seems to have hinted that he might consider taking a break after the election.

Both he and members of his Thai Rak Thai party have suggested that a break could be on the horizon.

Thaksin, who is in Finland attending the ASEM meeting, joked earlier this week that he was thinking of founding a new party called the Enjoy Your Life Party. This could be taken as a sign that he has decided to take a rest.

Thaksin was quoted by Chakraphan Yomchinda, host of a TV programme, as saying that he wouldn't become the next prime minister. He reportedly added that his successor would be either caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Chidchai Vanasatidya or caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai.

Meanwhile, several other Thai Rak Thai members have suggested publicly that Thaksin might take a break from politics. If they had not had a green light from Thaksin, it is doubtful they would make such comments.

While Thaksin seems to have made his political future clear, the question of who will replace him remains.

Since so many people have come out against the caretaker prime minister, Thaksin realises that his successor will not have an easy time. He knows that a public attempt to pass the torch could hurt the next person to occupy Government House.

Whoever it is, it is unlikely he or she will avoid coming under pressure from Thaksin's critics, so the caretaker prime minister will have to covertly pave the way for whoever takes over.

As one political saying in Thai goes, the illusions of politics never tell the whole story. This applies to the tension between Thaksin and caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, who is widely seen as Thaksin's anointed successor.

Nobody knows for sure whether their relationship has turned sour. Both men have stayed silent on reports that there is some dispute between them.

In the meantime Chidchai, Surakiart, and deputy leader Sudarat Keyuraphan have been floated as possible successors. But it is doubtful any of them could fill Thaksin's shoes.

The trouble is that none of these three would escape suspicions that they were Thaksin's nominees. On the contrary Somkid, who is thought to have come down against Thaksin on some issues, has been welcomed by the public.

Then again, Thaksin may have cooked up the dispute. They could have a deal that would see Thaksin pass the premiership to Somkid.

It could be like when Thaksin was looking for a finance minister in his first term. He mentioned many names, but finally settled on Somkid.

This could be seen as a conspiracy theory, but it is a fact that Somkid is the most obvious successor.

Meanwhile, Thaksin's opponents have thrown their support behind Somkid.

Thaksin seems smart enough to know that he must divert the ire of the anti-Thaksin movement towards his perceived nominees and away from his real successor.

Chidchai, Surakiart, and Sudarat could be decoys to allow the real successor, Somkid, to distance himself from Thakisn.

Unlike other Thaksin men like caretaker Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya or former deputy commerce minister Suvarn Valaisathien who strongly defended Thaksin against allegations arising from the sale of Shin Corp, Somkid has not openly backed his leader, and has not questioned the probe into whether Kularb Kaew is Temasek's nominee.

Somkid has also reportedly said many times that if he succeeded Thaksin, he would be independent. Somkid might convince Thaksin's opponents that he is not a nominee.

One of Somkid's strongest advantages is that he enjoys support from the largest faction in the Thai Rak Thai Party, Wang Nam Yom led by deputy leader Somsak Thepsuthin.

If Thaksin's plan is to pave the way for Somkid, it seems to be working. At this point, all Somkid has to do is sit back and wait for Thaksin to announce that he is taking a break.

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation