After the long wait for the appointment of a new Election Commission (EC), the path leading to a new election seems crystal clear. And it seems to be a good start to ease the on-going political stalemate.

However, in politics nobody should rush to conclude that things will go as planned.

It remains unclear when the new election will be held. For the time being there are two possible scenarios: an election as soon as possible - maybe in November - or one early next year.

A date now depends on the five commissioners elected by the Senate last Friday. The scheduled poll date of October 15 will have to be delayed because there is not enough time for the new EC to prepare for the ballot. It is widely believed that the election will be put back for at least a month. But it's possible it could be set back even more than that.

One of the newly elected members of the EC, Prapan Naikowit, said on Saturday that he and his four colleagues would try to organise the election as soon as possible because a free and fair poll would help to solve the protracted political crisis.

The five new EC members will hold their first meeting on Thursday to select a chairman and to outline their tasks and responsibilities.

If the election is held soon - in November as many now expect - the cooling of the political temperature will depend on what the prime minister does.

Only Thaksin knows whether he will step down from politics after the election. However, he has made one thing clear: he wants the election sooner, rather than later.

The earlier a poll is held, the better it will be for Thaksin. His goal is to use the outcome to clean his image and boost his popularity.

If Thaksin and his party fail to win a majority of seats in the House and he cannot form the next government, then, without Thaksin in the power, the political tension would ease.

But if the Thai Rak Thai Party wins and Thaksin decides to take the helm, the political temperature will go through the roof and the result may be violent, as the anti-Thaksin movement will never allow him to easily resume the top post.

However, if he decides to take a break from politics, the tension will be released.

The question then becomes: Who will step into Thaksin's shoes? Or more likely, who will Thaksin allow to wear his shoes?

If Thaksin passes on the top job to his deputy, Somkid Jatusripitak, the political chaos may clear, because Somkid enjoys significant support both within his party and outside it.

Alternatively, if Thaksin names one of the other deputies, Surakiart Sathirathai or Pongthep Thepkanchana, either would probably be acceptable.

But if, instead, Thaksin names someone who is seen as his nominee - like Deputy PM Chidchai Vanasatidya, then his opponents will rise again, along with the national political heat.

Another possibility is that a new election will not take place in the near future as long as Thaksin maintains remains head of Thai Rak Thai's party-list candidates and refuses to clarify his political future.

His opponents believe that Thai Rak Thai will win the coming election, so they will do everything in their power to delay a poll and block a victory for Thaksin.

There are two possible reasons why they might see benefit from further delaying the election.

First, if the poll is postponed for several months it will allow the possibility beforehand of the Constitution Court dissolving one, the other, or both Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat parties, who stand accused of violating election laws. The court is expected to rule on the case early next year.

This scenario of party dissolution has gathered stature for the critical importance of its timing.

If the ruling is delivered after the election there will be no problems for party executives involved in the case and its MPs in maintaining their status. The law allows them 60 days to move to other parties.

If Thai Rak Thai Party is dissolved, Thaksin's power will be weakened as his MPs will not only have the opportunity, but also the obligation, to flee to other parties such as the Democrats or Chat Thai.

If the court dissolves the parties within 90 days before the first day of registration, all parties' candidates will fail to qualify for the election. The Constitutions requires a candidate to hold membership of a party for at least 90 days before the first registration day.

If Thai Rak Thai is dissolved in this way, Thaksin government will become history.

However, if the court rules out dissolution and Thaksin wins the election, then the government will win another term in office, and the worst concern in these circumstances is Thaksin using both the election result and the court's ruling to justify his resumption of the leadership.

A new round of severe protests could lead to violence. If the resulting turmoil looks like getting out of control, it will create the opportunity for royal intervention and a royally-appointed government.

Many people see this as an ideal situation; to have a national government to undertake political reform and wash everything dirty out of Thai politics before holding fresh elections. With this option in mind, many people think about Bank of Thailand governor, MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, as an ideal prime minister.

So, what looks like an easy process to new elections is actually not clear at all. It's too soon for the Thai people to breathe easily. The political stalemate is still with us. We still must wait to see how much longer it will last.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation