It has been widely speculated that caretaker Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak will quit politics soon.

He has neither confirmed nor denied the stories and is believed to be quite upset by the reports. When asked recently to comment, he replied that the questioners should approach their sources. He called for those people to be named.

Earlier, caretaker Public Health Minister Pinij Charusombat told the news media Somkid planned to end his political career after the next election. Somkid - also a deputy leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party - was reportedly so upset that Pinij apologised.

Without breaking his silence, it appears Somkid has opted to act rather than speak.

Somkid has accepted the post of chairman of the ruling party's election strategy and campaign committee. He is active in helping the party to win the next election.

This could indicate that Somkid doesn't have a political break on his mind.

As one political proverb in Thai goes, a politician never hesitates to take the prime minister's office if the chance presents itself. Somkid may be familiar with this.

Right now, Somkid's star is rising. Now may be his best chance to land the country's top job, especially while he is enjoying significant support.

Somkid has encouragement from party factions that can number about 200 former members of parliament. They include the largest of all - Wang Nam Yom led by caretaker Labour Minister Somsak Thepsuthin.

Also in Somkid's camp are the Wang Phayanak faction led by Pinij, and the Baan Rim Nam faction led by deputy party leader Suchart Tancharoen.

The Baan Chan Song La faction led by Thaksin Shinawatra can only muster 80 former members.

Somsak is playing "king maker". He has reduced the number of party members in opposition to Somkid.

Right now just Thaksin's inner circle of Prime Minister's Office Minister Newin Chidchob and prime ministerial secretary general Prommin Lertsuridej remain opposed to the "pretender".

If Somsak secures Somkid the position, he will wield a lot of bargaining power in the next government.

Anti-Thaksin factions may prefer Somkid to others. It's likely these groups won't protest if he takes the reigns.

The Chat Thai Party - which could join a Thai Rak Thai-led coalition - welcomed Somkid. Chat Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa voiced support for him and said he was the "only choice" to succeed Thaksin.

Somkid would be a good choice for business, too.

In spite of support from many quarters, Somkid has not yet dared to throw his hat into the ring publicly. He has his reasons. He may have told his closest allies of his ambition but, in the meantime, he's pretending in public not to be competing with Thaksin.

Somkid has to play that role because he has not had the chance to speak frankly with Thaksin. And that chance may come only when the prime minister decides to have Somkid as his successor. Or, Somkid is waiting for Thaksin to flash the green light.

Somkid is known as a grateful person. He would not betray Thaksin.

But before that there may be a series of "information wars" between each man's camps.

A source close to Somkid suggests their relationship seemed to turn sour. In fact, the two maintain a civil, if cool, relationship. It is Thaksin's inner circle that opposes Somkid and has tried to paint a negative picture of their relationship.

"Somkid has stood by Thaksin while the premier has been in trouble. It proves the two will never leave one another," he said.

A dark cloud will loom over the Thaksin-Somkid relationship until the party finalises its candidates for the next election. If Somkid remains a party-list candidate, this will signal their relationship remains intact, albeit brittle, and may indicate Thaksin is prepared for Somkid to be his successor should he depart politics. Only then will Somkid's future be clear.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation