The annual military reshuffle is fast becoming a tug-of-war between the government and professional soldiers, signalling that the political discord has spread to another arena, impacting on the unity of the armed forces.

At issue is the apparent attempt by the government to influence military assignments in order to secure an anchor for it to cling to power.

The new military line-up should have been completed weeks ago but has stalled as political bosses are backing cronies willing to serve at their beck and call, while the top brass are working overtime to minimise the politicisation of the military reshuffle.

Under military protocol, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and caretaker Defence Minister Thamarak Isarangura are central figures in having the final say on the line-up of senior military officers. Both have denied exerting their political influence. But speculation abounds that the two are working behind closed doors to rig the proposed rotations.

Commanders of the Army, Navy and Air Force, along with the top brass at the Supreme Command Headquarters and the Defence Ministry, forwarded their recommendations for the annual rotation to Thamarak last month.

Although Thamarak spent considerable time reviewing the military recommendations, he has not finalised his decision on the matter.

In July, Thaksin made it an open secret that he backed Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers. He cancelled his birthday party but allowed his loyal officers to congratulate him at a private meeting. These officers are seen as protectors of Thaksin's throne in light of the political crisis.

Tension among military cliques has persisted for months as Thaksin pushed for the promotion of his military allies, pitching his government against the military establishment.

Through a series of horse-trading negotiations, the Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers finally agreed to stay put in order to have a fighting chance for one of them to replace Army Commander-in-Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin next year.

The officers would settle for certain positions this year after ensuring that other military cliques did not gain an upper hand.

Two weeks ago, Thamarak's aides leaked to the press that the military list was close to completion based on a compromise - but the discovery of a car loaded with explosives near the premier's residence on August 24 has evidently upset the planned military rotations.

Thaksin was reportedly unhappy that military leaders were not keen to get to the bottom of the car-bomb plot.

His relations with the top brass, particularly Sonthi, became tense after he met with Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers to discuss his personal safety.

Last week, military and government sources confirmed that Thaksin wanted to revamp the planned rotations in order to promote his trusted ally Maj-General Prin Suwanthat.

Sonthi originally proposed elevating Prin from commander of the First Infantry Division to deputy commander of the First Army Area.

According to military observers, Thaksin gave his blessing for Prin to become the commander of the First Army Corps, seen as vital in exerting military influence over Bangkok.

Sonthi made a public statement discouraging Thaksin from pressuring him to reward Prin with an undue promotion.

Thamarak's chief aide General Trairong Intarathat, a Pre-Cadet Class 10 officer, openly supported Prin's promotion and snubbed Sonthi.

Last Monday, four senior military officers stepped forward to petition General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council, to intervene and stop the political meddling.

Thamarak promptly ordered disciplinary proceedings against the four officers.

Three days later, more than 20 bombs exploded simultaneously targeting commercial banks in Yala and Thaksin quickly hinted that he would factor in the southern violence in his evaluation of Sonthi's job performance.

Although Sonthi has so far succeeded in rallying the public behind the military efforts to quell the violence, Thaksin still holds the trump card over him.

At stake for Thaksin is the credibility of his leadership to rein in the military, and he will suffer a major image problem if he fails to keep his promise to promote Prin.

For Sonthi, his military leadership will be dealt a fatal blow if he allows a subordinate to go over his head and win a promotion.

If a compromise is not forthcoming soon, the military rotations might have to be put on hold.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation