All four Army officers summoned by police on Monday in connection with the alleged attempted assassination of caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra may be attached to the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), but they are originally from the Special Warfare Command in Lop Buri.

Former armed forces supreme commander General Surayud Chulanond, who is a member of the Privy Council, also rose through the rank and file from the Special Warfare Command (SWC) during his active military career. So did General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the current army chief.

Is the car-bomb plot, whether a real attempt or just a stunt, part of a ploy to link the SWC to those who stand in opposition to the prime minister?

For the time being, Maj-General Phairoj Theerapharb, Colonel Suraphol Supradit, Lt Colonel Manas Sukaprasert and Sgt-Major Chakhrit Janthara are under investigation by the police, who have formed a theory that they could be linked to Lieutenant Thawatchai Klinchana.

Thawatchai drove the bomb-laden car and was arrested under dubious circumstances two weeks ago in the Bang Phlat area near the prime minister's residence.

And they all have close ties to General Pallop Pinmanee, the deputy director of Isoc. Pallop was sacked hours after Thawatchai's arrest.

The day after the car-bomb incident, a group that called itself Rak Ya (Grassroots) went to the residence of Privy Council president General Prem Tinsulanonda and called for him to protect Thaksin. Prem's supporters viewed this rally as an attempt to somehow link the statesman with the alleged plot on the prime minister's life.

The first shot was fired after a prolonged confrontation between the Prem and Thaksin camps. Prem has had to keep his cool. He has been repeatedly challenged by the Thaksin camp, who look upon him as a "charismatic person" "beyond the Constitution" trying to undermine the prime minister's political standing.

Prem, now 86, was forced to rally the military behind him, dressing in full combat uniform and paying a visit to the Army, Navy and Airforce to try to rouse loyalty from junior officers. His message is that the military must serve the country and His Majesty the King. He is also calling for the military to honour good persons and to shower contempt on those who come to power through corruption and other immoral means.

Prem has had a hard time trying to persuade key officers to his side because they are being swayed by Thaksin's influence, so he has had to concentrate on rallying support from the younger generation of military professionals.

The military has been deeply divided, accentuated by the car-bomb incident. The annual military reshuffle, which is now under intense negotiations, is part of the power play, in which both Prem and Thaksin would like to have some influence.

A military option cannot be ruled out to resolve the political crisis if the confrontation continues until to the point where it damages the country's stability. One of the main reasons that Thaksin can continue to hang on to power is strong support from a powerful clique in the military - who have a deep dislike of Prem.

Thaksin is adopting a go-for-broke strategy. Every attack against him will be responded in kind by his attackers. When Dr Prawase Wasi, the senior citizen, came out recently to call for the political leadership to make a sacrifice and adopt 10 ethical commandments, he was attacked by Thaksin's followers.

The same thing happened to Anand Panyarachun, the former prime minister, who was slated by Thaksin's supporters following his captivating warning about Thailand's potential to become a "failed state". Anand declared that he could not stay neutral during this time of political crisis. "We have to choose between the good and the bad. We can't stay neutral," he said.

Anand said if the political crisis continues, Thailand might develop into a "failed state" or a country ravaged by internal turmoil, until it needs intervention from the United Nations.

When he went shopping at Siam Paragon about three weeks ago, the premier was greeted by "Thaksin - Get Out" shouts from some ill-wishers. His bodyguards and followers immediately physically attacked these opponents. Later at Central World, the prime minister's supporters, wearing white shoes and wrist bands, also used excessive physical force to hurt the Thaksin critics while police stood by and did nothing to prevent the violence.

The Central World incident threatened to rock the PM's stability. But the car-bomb incident stole the headlines. All newspapers went on to cover the car-bomb plot and buried the Central World violence on the inside pages.

Fearing the government might not have enough support on the air-waves, Samak Sundaravej was brought back to resume his media role. Samak will go eye-to-eye with Sondhi Limthongkul, one of the key members of the People's Alliance for Democracy, in the media war aimed at shaping public opinion.

Samak, through his MV1 cable TV, will tell the government's side of the story, while Sondhi's ASTV cable TV has been quite successful so far in undermining the PM's credibility.

Between now and the election, one can expect to see more confrontations, more violence and greater divide in the country as Thaksin stakes all on his desperate bid to cling to power. But his opponents will try to prevent any comeback. The atmosphere is now returning to the post-Shin Corp sale period. Even networks of medical personnel have called on Thaksin to step down from politics. And the Thaksin camp is preparing to bring in grass-roots supporters to hit back in an eye-for-an-eye strategy.

Political Desk

The Nation