Anti-Thaksin groups believe they will see the PM try to return to the top post after another big TRT election win – but they have vowed to fight such an outcome.

While the Royal Decree endorsing the next election comes into force today, giving all political parties the green light to kick off their campaigns, the ongoing political crisis seems likely to jeopardise the plan for the poll to be held on October 15.

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra insists he will lead his Thai Rak Thai Party into the election, but has not decided if he will seek to retain his prime ministerial position after the election.

Anti-Thaksin groups believe he will return to the top post if Thai Rak Thai scores a landslide victory, a situation they cannot accept at all. They believe the premier will exploit the election results to claim legitimacy for holding onto power for a third term, despite having failed - in their eyes - to clear himself of allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

So, these groups are doing their best to ensure the election does not take place until Thaksin, bowing to pressure, announces that he will permanently exit the Thai political stage.

A lot hinges on the selection of the new Election Commission (EC). The final stage of the process is now in the hands of the Senate, whose investigative panel has not given a deadline as to when it will submit its report to all 200 senators, who will pick five of 10 nominees as the new commissioners.

A group of anti-Thaksin senators is believed to be behind a plan to delay the October 15 election. When the Supreme Court selected 10 nominees earlier this month, all parties in the conflict praised it for its choices, adding that any of them could become new commissioners as they all held clean records.

As Thaksin has not surrendered to his opponents' ultimatum that he quit from politics as the only solution to the current crisis, however, the anti-Thaksin senators are claiming that a deeper scrutiny of the nominees' records is necessary. The swift change in their stand is apparently an attempt to delay the election.

If the new EC receives royal endorsement after September 5 - the first day of registration for House candidates - the poll cannot be held on October 15. Thus, the new EC will have to set a new election date. Amid the political uncertainty, precisely when this might be is hard to predict.

Its support having dwindled as most people look ahead to the scheduled October 15 poll, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a major anti-Thaksin group, has changed its strategy from organising mass rallies to using small groups of members to shout at and curse Thaksin when he appears in public.

With this new "attacking" style, the PAD has made the deliberate decision to create the impression that confrontation is unavoidable. Following recent clashes between supporters and opponents of Thaksin in Bangkok, fears have arisen that the growing tensions between Thaksin loyalists and their rivals could spread nationwide during campaigning, resulting in uncontrollable violence.

Should this happen, the stage would be set for the familiar but undesirable scenario of military intervention as the only answer to restore peace to the country in the wake of the democratic system's failure to do so.

Political Desk

The Nation